Johannesburg and Washington — With just hours to go before he was due to proclaim himself president of Madagascar on Friday, and oust his rival, indications from the capital Antananarivo were that the opposition leader, Marc Ravalomanana was thinking twice about his decision and reviewing the implications.
Ravalomanana who claims he won the contested December 16 presidential poll outright against the incumbent Malagasy president, Didier Ratsiraka, is under pressure from all quarters to soften his stance, though he retains the full backing of his followers.
A court in the Indian Ocean island has ruled that he failed to reach the required majority needed to avoid a second round.
As both sides prepare for a showdown on Friday, Ravalomanana is adamant that the Ratsiraka government is illegitimate. But some say his resolve may have faltered as other failed presidential aspirants call for restraint.
"Perhaps there is a better way," was the comment by the former president Albert Zafy. His remark was booed by Ravalomanana loyalists.
Arguing that haste in this matter might backfire, another losing contender Daniel Rajakoba said "the ouster must be delayed until Tuesday, that would be better."
On Thursday, Ravalomanana told hundreds of thousands of his supporters, who thronged the May 13 Square in Antananarivo, that "we will make our decisions tomorrow, make them calmly and together." Some of them carried placards saying "Welcome, our president".
He urged them to assemble at the main Mahamasina stadium on Friday, the venue he had earlier announced for his 'inauguration. Although he did not publicly back down, Ravalomanana did not repeat his threat to stage a unilateral swearing-in ceremony Friday or talk about toppling Ratsiraka.
His critics have denounced the declaration as a coup detat, and an unconstitutional and illegal action. But Ravalomanana claims he was robbed of electoral victory and is determined to be his countrys next head of state.
Madagascar's Prime Minister, Tantely Andrianarivo, on Thursday condemned Ravalomanana's threat to seize power. In a communique, Andrianarivo called on the population to remain calm, but warned that "all legal means will be deployed to safeguard the country's sovereignty and public order. The affairs of state will not suffer as a result of some inclination towards a coup de force".
But the authorities have stopped short of specifying how they intend to stop Ravalomanana proclaiming himself president. "If I told you now what the government and security forces are thinking of doing, the others might react, so you will see tomorrow. We have faith in the security forces," said the Prime Minister, reiterating that military was on the government's side.
Ravalomanana has challenged this view, assuring his supporters that the army would not interfere in the crisis, a statement apparently confirmed by the Defence Minister, Marcek Ranjeva, who said the military was "neutral and loyal". Ranjeva said the role of the military was to "intervene in the event of citizens being attacked," adding that their response would be "graduated and appropriate". In a message to the army, Ravalomanana said: "I am not asking you descend on May 13 Square, but I implore you to protect the people."
However, Midi Madagasikara, a large-circulation French-language newspaper that favours the opposition, said on Thursday that the government is mobilising the army. A meeting for instructing generals and colonels was called as early as Tuesday night, says the paper, which also reports that the army began dusting off some of its old vehicles.
"Leaders of the Ampahibe regiment," says Midi Madagasikara, "received orders to roll out the old armoured vehicles and to prepare them for a forthcoming campaign... According to military sources, the mobilisation of these regiments no longer falls within the competence of the military hierarchy. It is a power that now accrues to the political authorities," the paper added.
Hopes were raised Tuesday when Ravalomanana, the popular and charismatic mayor of Antananarivo who is also a self-made business millionaire and dairy tycoon, appeared to agree to an Organisation of African Unity-brokered announcement of a second round run-off poll against Ratsiraka, postponed by a month.
For a moment it seemed that deadlock had been broken.
By Wednesday, Ravalomanana had changed his mind and announced his intentions to go it alone, telling a euphoric rally that the political crisis had lasted long enough and it was time to take over the government. President Ratsiraka has not reacted to his challengers statement, but the government has officially announced a delayed second-round election.
Since early January, there have been almost daily huge public protests in the capital, and many towns across Madagascar, in support of opposition claims that the government rigged the election. The demonstrations have drawn hundreds of thousands into the streets in the island nation with a population of about 15 million.
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Ravalomanana may feel that any criticism of his decision to renege on the OAU compromise agreement is overtaken by a larger claim. In answer to OAU Secretary General Amara Essy, who said last week that the opposition "needs to establish a link between legality and legitimacy", Ravalomanana declared: "the legality of this country is being scorned; the Malagasy have the right to install a legitimacy of their own choice."
The OAU has expressed regret at latest developments in Madagascar and Essy warned Ravalomanana that he risked becoming an international pariah because of his planned action.
The prime minister did not rule out compromise, saying the two rival camps were still talking. "One should always be ready for dialogue. We are open," said Andrianarivo.
Ravalomanana commands considerable support around the capital, his stronghold, but Madagascar is predominantly rural, with 80 percent of Malagasy people living outside the cities. Ratsiraka has a higher profile outside Antananarivo and is considered by many as the father of the nation.
