Washington, DC — The visit to the White House on Tuesday, February 26, by President Jose Eduardo dos Santos of Angola will set the tone for Bush administration policy on Angola, a policy that has gone largely undefined until now.
The dos Santos trip could not come at a more opportune time, as pressures within Angola for political and economic reform continue to grow and are certain to accelerate if reports of the death of opposition leader Jonas Savimbi are accurate.
Dos Santos will be participating in the second 'mini-summit' that the Bush White House has convened with African leaders, along with the presidents of Mozambique and Botswana. At the first meeting last fall, the presidents of Mali, Senegal and Ghana spent several hours discussing with President Bush how democracy and economic development can reinforce each other.
The agenda for this meeting is more ambitious. While poverty alleviation will be discussed, so will regional trouble spots such as Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The New Partnership for African Development will also be raised, especially the development of an African peer review process on good governance, as will the pandemic of HIV/AIDS.
A Reforming Angola?
At the first summit, the administration made a point to invite three African countries with strong reputations for governance and transparency, which Mozambique and Botswana also enjoy. Angola's inclusion in this session suggests that the administration is acknowledging Angola's relative strategic importance, given that the United States imports eight percent of its oil from the country, as well as efforts by the government to improve its track record on political and economic reformd.
Indeed, the White House is encouraged by dos Santos' announcement that he will not contest the presidential elections when they are next held. While there may be some back and forth over the timing of the elections - Washington wants them early in 2003 while the Angolans envision them late in the year -- there is no dispute over their importance to the bilateral relationship.
The comment by the Angolan leader on January 13, that "it is now time for the UN to renew contact with the military wing of UNITA," also reflected well on dos Santos. Equally important from the U.S. perspective is the constructive role that the Angolans have been playing in helping to move the peace process forward in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Even though the regional summit will be the focal point, President dos Santos also will have private meetings with Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Colin Powell. Issues such as dos Santos' future plans, how the government will improve transparency in the business environment and how it will proceed in the post-Savimbi era will be raised. The Angolans are likely to express their displeasure in being deemed, for a second year, ineligible to benefit from the African Growth and Opportunity Act.
In addition to his meetings with American officials, dos Santos will meet with World Bank President Jim Wolfensohn, and perhaps with representatives of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Angola has reached a critical turning point in its effort to establish satisfactory relations with the international financial institutions (IFIs), and these meetings will determine the pace at which future relations are pursued.
Three years ago, when dos Santos persuaded Aguinaldo Jaime to return as governor of the Reserve Bank, there was agreement that one of the government's top priorities would be to reduce the country's $10 billion external debt, which requires an accord with the Paris Club. Despite a persistent effort, the government has not been able to get to first base in this process.
In order to reach the Paris Club, the country has to complete a staff-monitored program (SMP) with the IMF. Unfortunately, the government has failed in two efforts over the last 18 months to complete an SMP. Indeed, the process almost ended in bitter recrimination late last year, but to the credit of the Angolans, Finance Minister Julio Bessa, along with the Reserve Bank's Jaime and the respected economic adviser, Pedro de Morais, came to Washington in early January to convey to the Bank and Fund the government's commitment to move forward on reforms.
As a result, there was cautious optimism that when a Bank-Fund staff went to Luanda in early February on annual consultations, agreement on a new set of achievable targets might be reached. However, this did not happen. In a lengthy statement of its "preliminary conclusions" on the mission, the IMF found large fiscal deficits, a deteriorating budgetary situation and a pervasive lack of transparency in government operations.
The heart of the problem is "being open about the books," as one IFI official put it. Indeed, many policymakers in Washington, especially in the U.S. Treasury Department, still equate Angola with massive corruption. Administration and IFI officials will be looking to President dos Santos to hear about the specific actions he will take to improve transparency and move the reform process forward.
Ironically, solid progress is being made in the conduct of a "diagnostic" study of the oil sector. Conducted by the accounting firm KPMG, the diagnostic was designed not only to improve transparency and accountability of oil revenues but to provide the government with better estimates of projected earnings.
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During the Angolans' early-January visit to Washington, a meeting was held with all parties to go over the first draft of the diagnostic study. The World Bank and IMF have been encouraged by the results and the willingness of the Angolans to provide the requested figures.
Implications of Change
As expectations of political change increase in Angola, so will the demand for resources with which to effect change. With 4.1 million internally displaced persons, and parts of the country inaccessible, the humanitarian needs are as great as in any country in the world. Moreover, organizations such as Human Rights Watch and Global Witness will continue to monitor closely investments in the oil sector and developments in the diamond sector.
Inevitably, the government will come under greater pressure to account publicly for revenues and expenditures and to convincingly demonstrate that appropriate investments are being made in the welfare of the Angolan people. Hopefully, President dos Santos and his delegation will leave Washington having forged the kind of partnerships that will help the government achieve these objectives.
Witney W. Schneidman, who served as deputy assistant secretary of State for African Affairs in the Clinton Administration, is president of Schneidman and Associates International, a Washington-based consulting firm that focuses on business development in sub-Saharan Africa.
