Washington, DC — There "has not been a level playing field" in Zimbabwe's pre-electoral environment, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Walter Kansteiner told reporters at the Foreign Press Center in Washington, DC, Monday.
But he cautioned against assuming that the election was pointless. "That doesn't mean the voice of the people still cannot be heard, and in fact the election still may have the ability, [to] in sheer numbers... let that voice of the people be heard."
That inside Zimbabwe there is a large and significant opposition to the Zanu-PF government is not even debated anymore. But is it large enough to oust President Robert Mugabe in upcoming elections? Kansteiner and others think, as he put it in testimony before the House Subcommittee on Africa last Thursday, that even in a "tainted" election: "It is possible that the brave people of Zimbabwe will vote with such conviction and in such numbers that the election will produce a meaningful result." And these critics are clear on what they mean by "meaningful result": Mugabe's removal from office.
Next week's election lies at the end of a long political fuse that was lit in February last year when Zimbabwean voters rejected a new constitution giving President Mugabe increased power. The unexpected defeat was Mugabe's first significant political defeat since independence.
The campaign against the constitution was led by a labor union leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, who also headed a newly-formed political party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Just two months later, in April, the MDC captured nearly half the seats in parliament. That result was a second shocking defeat for Mugabe and Zanu-Pf.
It was in the months between the referendum campaign and those parliamentary elections that "war veterans" began "invading" land long occupied by white farmers, demanding that these properties be turned over to black Zimbabweans in the name of "land reform." These efforts, officially spontaneous, were nonetheless backed by President Mugabe. The two-year campaign has resulted in more than 100 deaths.
The economy has plunged to rock bottom as white farmers, long an economic mainstay, stopped producing, with many leaving the country. Inflation skyrocketed while jobs disappeared. The jobless rate in Zimbabwe is now approaching 60 percent. This economic decline along with drought and the unpopular decision to send soldiers to war in the Democratic Republic of Congo at a cost to taxpayers of millions of dollars a week, fueled dissatisfaction and aided the rise of the MDC's influence.
While land reform is arguably the most serious political issue confronting Zimbabwe it has, for most of the country's 20 years of independence, been the most ignored. But after two heavy political defeats and with a presidential election in sight, the politics of land almost instantly moved to the top of the agenda, becoming confusingly intertwined with the political issues that had given a boost to the MDC.
Mugabe and Zanu-PF were soon accusing the MDC of being the pawns of Zimbabwe's white farmers and stooges of British colonialism. In turn, the MDC accused Mugabe and Zanu-PF of cynically using the issue of land reform to manipulate the black population in an effort to hold onto power.
Next week's election will test the muscle of both the MDC and Zanu-PF. Turnout is one key element. Already there is concern that the decision to put the army in charge of the election will keep many MDC voters at home. In January, army chief Vitalis Zvinavashe said Zimbabwe's security services would not accept a president who had not fought in the country's liberation war against white rule. Tsvangirai was not a combatant.
Now the army has a hand in almost every aspect of the election, including the handling of ballot boxes. "War veterans" and members of the Central Intelligence Organization will be working alongside the soldiers. A "system of semi-military command centers" has been set up in order to ensure victory for President Robert Mugabe according to Mark Chavunduka, editor of the independent Zimbabwe Standard newspaper. "We are seeing a militarisation of the election campaign structure," he told allAfrica last month.
Analysts say this can be seen as part of a broader strategy to keep enough opposition voters away from the polls next weekend to give Mugabe the edge in what everyone concedes will be a close election. Other elements in this strategy reportedly include reducing the number of polling stations in urban areas where the MDC is strong, in the hope that long lines will discourage potential opposition voters, and purging voter rolls, removing thousands of names. New requirements for passports and utility bills as proof of residence have denied voter registration to thousands in urban areas where dissatisfaction with government is strongest.
However there was some consolation for the opposition in a verdict by the Supreme Court disallowing a law that would have permitted only government civil servants to monitor polling, in effect eliminating any other scrutiny by observers.
President Mugabe must also find ways to shore up support from Zanu-PF's traditional support base. There has been vocal criticism of Mugabe from within his party, with some important figures like Eddison Zvogbo in open mutiny. What kind of campaign effort can be expected from these dissatisfied elements and their constituencies remains unclear.
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"I think there is a marked denudation of Mugabe's support in his traditional stronghold, the rural areas," says Eliphas Mukonoweshuro Professor of Political Science at the University of Zimbabwe, and one of Mugabe's strongest critics. "A piece of land does not mean anything to anybody if there are no support services, if there is no health, no education. The cost of living now in the rural areas is higher than in the urban areas! So you can see, on the basis of that, how there has been a spectacular erosion of the support that Mugabe used to enjoy in the rural areas."
There are new restrictions on the smaller than anticipated number of international observers. But even though what they will be able to observe is more limited now, few believe that the opposition can be completely steamrollered. "The body politic of Zimbabwe can speak and perhaps will speak," says a hopeful, if skeptical, Kansteiner, adding that the U.S. will adopt a "wait and see" posture and meanwhile have embassy observers monitoring the election.
