Washington, DC — An Organization of African Unity (OAU) "contact group" arrived in Madagascar, Wednesday, to begin talks aimed at re-uniting the now-split island state. The team is led by former Cape Verde President, Antonio Mascarenhas Monteiro.
There are effectively two governments now operating in Madagascar. One is led by the incumbent, President Didier Ratsiraka, effectively banished from the capital city, Antananarivo, and operating out of a hastily-declared headquarters in the eastern city of Tamatave (also known as Toamasina), with the backing of five of the country's six provincial governors.
The other is led by Marc Ravalomanana; declared president by popular acclaim in the capital, Antananarivo, and sworn in by a supreme court judge at the end of February, he still lacks a constitutional mandate and international recognition. Ravalomanana this week moved his cabinet into government offices in the capital and is persuading civil servants to return to work after a prolonged strike by his supporters.
The OAU mission will meet with both leaders in an attempt to resolve the crisis. An OAU mission in February failed and international approaches continue to be viewed with suspicion by the Ravalomanana government in Antananarivo. "We are tempted to think that the international community is like an accomplice with Mr. Ratsiraka's government," Ravalomanana's Deputy Prime Minister, Narisoa Rajaonarivony, told allAfrica.com.
The origins of the division lie in December when the country held an election. Marc Ravalomanana, millionaire businessman and mayor of Antananarivo, led a successful campaign and was well ahead in the polls. His supporters say their record of the results gave their candidate outright victory, with 50% of the vote. But when the High Constitutional Court announced formal results, they gave Ravalomanana only 46.2% to Ratsiraka's 40.8%, necessitating a second round run-off.
A massive campaign of demonstrations and strikes in the capital ensued until late last month, when Ravalomanana declared that he would be sworn in as president and launch a government rather than accept the OAU mediator's proposal of a second round of voting in March.
President Ratsiraka declared martial law, but the army refused to intervene and end the strikes and demonstrations in the capital and eventually stood aside to allow Ravalomanana and his cabinet to move into government offices.
Ravalomanana has said he is ready for dialogue with Ratsiraka. There has been no formal response from Tamatave.
A second round run-off is still scheduled for March 24 and the Ratsiraka side has said it is ready to participate. Last month Ratsiraka's Prime Minister, Tantely Andrianarivo, said the second round of voting would go ahead as planned, and that the new election would be better run. "First of all, there will only be two candidates instead of six, so it will be easier... for people to follow. I think that it will be much easier for all the parties to go along with this electoral process."
But the OAU mission faces a new more polarised situation than existed when it was advocating a second round of voting. Rajaonarivony is adamant that the OAU's main job is to try and extract the voting records from the first round: "It is for the OAU to really put pressure on the High Constitutional Court to issue the exact results. That's it." He wants a comparison made between the final results announced by the Court and the original voting records, on which, he says, Ravalomanana's claim of outright victory is based. The Ratsiraka side has so far refused to agree to such scrutiny.
Even if that can be achieved, and the results confirm the need for a second round, the negotiators will still face major obstacles.
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Rajaonarivony complains that the conduct of the first round of voting was not transparent; the Electoral Committee was appointed by the Ratsiraka administration, Ratsiraka's Interior Ministry was responsible for controlling the vote and he and his supporters appointed all the members of the High Constitutional Court. Opposition demands for international observers were refused.
If there is to be a second round, Rajaonarivony says, "let us appoint a new court, let us have a new electoral committee, and, of course, let us have international observers. Most important, let us have an autonomous body to collect the different vote results throughout the country instead of letting the Ministry of Interior do it."
Complicating the OAU effort at dialogue around this thorny issue is the resignation last week of Mr. Ratsiraka's foreign minister and the vacancy of the post in the Ravalomanana government.
