Washington, DC — The U.S. has apparently decided to throw more of its political and financial weight behind Kenyan-led efforts within the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) aimed at settling Sudan's 20-year-old civil war. "We have conveyed to the Kenyan government our willingness to contribute financing and personnel," a State Department official speaking on background told allAfrica.com.
At the White House Tuesday in a written statement, President Bush announced that he has asked former Senator John Danforth to continue to be his special envoy to Sudan. In his statement the President also indicated that new Igad negotiations in Nairobi were imminent. "The United States is committed to helping the aggrieved people of the Sudan. We will continue to urge the parties toward peace at the talks in Kenya. To achieve a lasting and just peace, all parties at the talks must make every effort to ensure the discussions are a success."
A new round of peace negotiations, "chaired by Igad with strong U.S. participation" will take place, confirmed a State Department official Wednesday. He declined to give a date, saying "I would not like to step on the toes of Kenya and Igad;" An announcement is expected to come from Kenya's military chief, Lieutenant-General Lazarus Sumbeiywo, who has led the Igad peace initiative which started in 1994. One source told allAfrica.com that renewed talks were likely in early June.
Jeff Millington, a senior State Department negotiator left Washington Tuesday, en route to Khartoum for talks with the Sudanese government. According to knowledgeable sources, Millington will be named chargé d'affaires of a beefed up diplomatic mission there. His duties as chargé will also include working alongside the U.S. embassy's 'Sudan-watcher' in Nairobi.
The U.S.is also developing a "task force" to assist Igad that will be based in Washington. An unofficial 'troika' of the United States, Britain and Norway is also setting up a team in Nairobi to begin working to expand regional efforts for a settlement.
But whether the U.S. role is being expanded is still the subject of much speculation among analysts. "Bush did change the dynamic on this issue," says John Prendergast, formerly a special advisor on African conflict to the Clinton Administration and now director of the African program at the International Crisis Group.
"I don't think it's impossible to conceive that in the process of supporting Igad, the U.S. could support the Kenyan special envoy by undertaking shuttle diplomacy and actually sharing and hosting specific meetings because this process is going to go on for a while. To think that Kenya has to host every meeting and be in charge of every step of the process is perhaps not realistic," said Prendergast.
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"We will be working with other key international players, in particular Great Britain and Norway, to ensure that this effort succeeds and the conflict is ended," said U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher on Monday. "We also look forward to working closely with regional neighbors, particularly Egypt."
Such flurries of activity around Sudan have been seen before and several analysts urge caution in assuming a peace breakthrough is near. Noting that the U.S. has been contributing money and support to Igad since 1994, Ted Dagne of the Congressional Research Service says: "I don't see much change in approach from the Clinton administration."
The government and the rebel SPLA are still far apart on two key issues: the relationship of religion to the state and the issue of self-determination. "The parties are stuck," said Dagne, who thinks who thinks additional money, rhetoric and human resources are not enough, and the U.S. needs to be even more engaged.
"If you want a breakthrough," he says, you need tough arbitration that can only come from Washington or some international body. "The parties have to understand there are consequences."
