Maputo — The numbers of people in need of food aid may increase in Mozambique during the next few weeks, due to factors such as the serious drop in household food reserves, the brown streak virus, that attacks cassava crops, and the increase in the prices of basic foodstuffs, hitting peasant families' purchasing power.

The food security data from August 2002 led to estimates that about 587,000 people would need food aid up until March this year.

However, according to Monday's issue of the daily paper "Noticias", a more recent assessment concludes that the situation has worsened, with high levels of malnutrition in all areas affected by the drought in Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane, Sofala, Manica and Tete provinces.

The study found that about 6.6 per cent of people living in these provinces are suffering serious malnutrition. In Gaza the figure reaches about 10 per cent, and 7.7 per cent in Maputo province. Rates of malnutrition are deemed "acceptable" when not exceeding five per cent, "bad" between five and nine per cent, "serious" between 10 and 14 per cent, and "critical" when go over 15 per cent. The Mozambican Vulnerability Assessment National Committee recommends that assistance to minimise the effects of drought be directed with priority to the most vulnerable groups, namely the under-fives, pregnant and breastfeeding women, households headed by elderly people, and those where a seriously ill adult is taking care of children.

It is feared that food reserves will continue to dwindle until March/April, when the next harvest begins to come in.

The Agricultural Markets Information System (SIMA), of the Agriculture Ministry, has found that the family sector is marketing ever smaller quantities of stored maize because people are holding the product back for their own consumption. Despite this, there is still a surplus north of the Zambezi, and peasants, particularly in Zambezia provinces, are continuing to sell maize across the border into Malawi.