Washington, DC — Although just last week, commenting on background, one senior administration official here in Washington bravely predicted a comprehensive peace settlement by late June, few other analysts and observers think such a speedy conclusion to Sudan's 20-year conflict is likely. "It will not be feasible by June," chief mediator, the Kenyan army commander Lt.General Lazaro Sumbeiywo, told Reuters News Agency.
"In a negotiation, one has to move, this did not happen. Both parties kept to their positions. They did not agree, but at least they engaged and were not antagonistic."
Since the October 2002 signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on Cessation of Hostilities, talks between the government and the SPLM/A haven't much moved on several crucial issues related to power and wealth: the allocation executive office positions, parliamentary seats and civil service positions, and on the issues of finding a formula for sharing revenue from oil and other resources.
There has been some progress, everyone agrees -- "limited progress," stresses Ted Dagne of the Congressional Research Service, and a close observer of Sudan. Basically, says Dagne, there is agreement on a six year interim period, a self-determination referendum for the South and that Sharia law can govern the North. "The contentious issues of power and wealth sharing, Sharia in the capital of Khartoum and the security issues remain unresolved," Dagne told allAfrica.com.
A "National Unity Government" that both parties seem to have agreed on still remains vaguely conceptualized. The SPLM had initially proposed a rotating presidency but has backed away from this stance. But it still is not clear whether the rebel group will get the Vice Presidency, or even if there will be only one vice president.
And though both parties agree on a bicameral legislature, the issue of the number of seats in a new Parliament remains equally contentious and uncertain. The SPLM/A has been asking for 40 percent in a Lower House and 50 percent in an Upper House while the government argues that Southerners represent only 20 percent of the population.
Adding to the political complexity are future security arrangements. Last week's talks - the fourth round of talks - ended in disagreement over whether rebel and government forces should be integrated into a new national army for a transitional period.
Meanwhile, opponents of the government grouped under the umbrella of the national Democratic Alliance - which is nominally under the SPLM/A umbrella for the peace talks - began meeting in Asmara, Eritrea, Tuesday. The government of Sudan has charged that this violates the spirit of the peace process. But it may reflect a key off-the-agenda political factor shaping the peace effort: strong regional interests.
Relations between Eritrea and Sudan have been strained for years, with Eritrea accusing Sudan of backing armed Islamists attempting to destabilize their government. And in recent months Khartoum has accused Eritrea of supporting and arming dissidents attempting to overthrow the government.
And all of this political wrangling has been regularly punctuated by outbreaks of armed conflict.
However, two key agreements seem to have kept Sudan away from a full-scale resumption of the civil conflict that has already caused the deaths of more than two million people over the past two decades: A February 4th agreement that strengthened the ceasefire agreement signed last October; and two days later, another MOU between the government and SPLM/A that began inching the two parties toward agreement on wealth and power sharing
They agreed to move away from trying to find a solution to these issues based on "percentages" and instead the more politically flexible "equitable" became the key word, as in finding a formula for arranging equitable power and wealth sharing.
Government and SPLM/A are also agreed on the need for a verification and monitoring team to oversee the ceasefire; that all territory captured since October should be returned; and both sides have pledged to report all of their troop positions and troop movements. Additionally, the government says it will not extend any road construction deeper into the oil fields.
And though both parties agree that existing oil contracts won't be renegotiated, what role the South - where much of the oil is located - will have in new contracts is unclear. At one point the SPLM/A was demanding 60 percent of oil revenues while the government was offering 10 percent.
Earlier this year, human rights groups were accusing the government of engaging in a "scorched earth policy" in the oil rich Western Upper Nile (Wahdah State) of the South, killing or driving out civilians to make way for oil companies whose payments to the government helps finance the war.
In a February report sharply critical of the government, the International Crisis Group (ICG) charged that the "dynamic of oil development" was endangering the peace process, "at least so long as the government and a number of foreign oil companies with which it is in partnership are prepared to pursue that development by whatever means necessary."
China's National Petroleum Corporation, Malaysia's Petronas and Canada's largest independent oil and gas exploration firm, Talisman Energy, together with the Sudan Government, form the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company consortium, controlling 60 per cent of the oil industry.
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Sudanese government officials acknowledge some fighting in Western Upper Nile region but deny that civilians are being targeted. "This is an area where a CPMT (Civilian Protection Monitoring Team) is operating," Mohammed Ahmad Dirdeiry, the charge d'affaires at the Sudanese embassy in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, told IRIN. "I don't think anyone would be justified in saying there is ethnic cleansing, because there is a team which is on the ground to monitor and verify the situation."
In any case, oil has become as much a political factor as an economic factor in Sudan's complex efforts to find a way out of its long conflict. With the help of a just opened pumping station north of Khartoum, Sudan expects to be exporting 300,000 barrels a day.
And now there is additional worry That Sudan may be sliding off the hook of international censure. Last week, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights killed a resolution that would have extended human rights monitoring in Sudan. Thirteen of the 14 African members of the commission voted to reject censuring Sudan (and all 14 voted not to hold a hearing on Zimbabwe).
"This was the only chance to make sure that human rights would be at the center of the peace process," said Lubna Freih, a spokeswoman for Human Rights Watch. "It is a fragile peace process."
The peace talks will resume May 2.
