Johannesburg — President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is considered the regional pariah of southern Africa in some Western capitals, whose leaders are pushing for him to stand down. But Mugabes African counterparts have adopted a 'softly softly approach to tackling the sensitive diplomatic issue of the Zimbabwean leader's political future after 23 years in power.
African leaders do not like to be seen interfering in each other's affairs. And it appears that quiet diplomacy was the strategy again, Monday, when President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa, the inaugural head of the African Union (AU), the Nigerian leader Olusegun Obasanjo and Malawian President Bakili Muluzi held talks with Mugabe in the capital, Harare.
The African delegation later met the main opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
It would be premature to say the negotiations succeeded or failed. The short-term goal was to break the impasse between the two sides and try to open dialogue between the government and the opposition.
True, many burning national issues - such as the lamentable state of the economy, disastrous reform policies, a humanitarian crisis, hunger among parts of Zimbabwes population, allegations of human rights abuses, including torture and other political problems - need urgent attention.
For progress to be made, many argue, Robert Mugabe needs to be removed from the political equation, allowing a new leadership for Zanu-PF and fresh elections to establish a government acknowledged by all sides.
But the one overriding matter, a subject of wild speculation, is whether or not Mugabe is ready to retire early. He has hinted that he might be prepared to step down ahead of time. Whether or not that question was raised during Mondays discussions is not clear.
After the meetings, Obasanjo said: "On both sides we saw one common factor, earnestness for negotiations to be resumed. What we have to deal with now, is the legitimacy or no legitimacy."
This was a reference to the MDC's insistence that the Mugabe government is illegitimate, because it believes the election which returned Zanu-PF to power in April 2002 was rigged. The opposition is determined to pursue its legal challenge of the poll results.
But speaking to journalists, at his official residence in the Zimbabwean capital, at the end of the talks, Mugabe said he could not contemplate talks with Tsvangirai as long as the opposition court case against his presidency remained in force. Mugabe asked: "Does the MDC now say they recognise me? That is the issue. If they do, that means action in court has to be withdrawn, and we start talking."
The two sides are sticking to their positions for now. But Obasanjo was determined to put the best interpretation on today's talks, commenting: "We are delighted that both Mugabe and his government are anxious, very anxious for the resumption of negotiations."
In their meetings, Mbeki, Muluzi and Obasanjo no doubt applied gentle pressure to both sides, probably encouraging Tsvangirai to drop the oppositions case disputing the legitimacy of Mugabes contested re-election.
Tsvangirai is likely to have insisted to the three African presidents in return that "state-sponsored violence and torture" must stop, and that hardline security and anti-press laws, which came into force in Zimbabwe last year, must be repealed. The MDC want to be sure that the methods used to prevent them from making a good showing in last year's election will be outlawed in any future poll so that they can campaign freely.
High on Mugabes list of demands might be a demand for future immunity. Zimbabwes veteran leader and revolutionary independence hero will want assurances that he will not face prosecution in a court of law should he choose to surrender power and opt for early retirement.
Mugabe has just completed the first year of another six-year term, scheduled to end in 2008.
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Mbeki, Obasanjo and Muluzi might also have suggested to the president that treason charges against Tsvangirai, allegedly for plotting to assassinate Mugabe, be dropped.
While the regional leaders strive to find an African-brokered solution to Zimbabwes pressing problems, Western powers are piling on the pressure in the background against Mugabe. And the the economic crisis, with fuel price rises recently provoking a successful national strike amid severe shortages of the most basic needs such as food and drugs, will provide its own impetus to move forward.
But even if the initial deadlock is broken, the Africans are likely to have to continue tiptoeing through the political minefield to find a compromise. If a deal including an 'exit strategy' for Mugabe is agreed, there will still be much to be done to repair confidence and secure commitment on all sides to implement an agreement.
Further, Mugabe at 79 is a wily and determined operator whose instinct for political survival is legendary. All bets on the future must be off until he has finally quit the presidency.
