London — A prominent British non-governmental organisation, Christian Aid, has given an apocalyptic warning that climate change could lead to an additional 182 million people dying of disease in sub-Saharan Africa by the end of the century, with further deaths due to "pestilence, floods, famine and war".
In its report "The Climate of Poverty", Christian Aid warns that "the potential ravages of climate change are so severe that they could nullify efforts to secure meaningful and sustainable development in poor countries. At worst, they could send the real progress that has already been achieved spinning into reverse. No other single issue presents such a clear and present danger to the future welfare of the world's poor".
The report points out that "the widespread floods that ravaged Mozambique in 2000 and 2001, killing hundreds, provide a telling example of what such a disaster can do to a country where infrastructure is poor and the people poorer. Heavy rains in January 2000 were followed by tropical cyclone Connie, which dumped record amounts of rain on the capital Maputo and the nation's southern watersheds. A few weeks later another cyclone dropped more rain across the region, submerging an area nearly the size of Belgium and the Netherlands combined".
It points out that as a result "a third of the country's crops were ruined, roads and railway lines were destroyed, entire villages disappeared, and hundreds of thousands of people were made homeless. According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 350,000 lost their jobs, which undermined the livelihoods of 1.5 million people".
In response to the growing threat of climate change, Christian Aid calls for developing countries to switch to clean energy, although it acknowledges that countries in sub-Saharan Africa actually produce relatively little greenhouse gas (notably carbon dioxide) emissions.
However, it predicts that oil prices will continue to rise, with sub-Saharan Africa needing to increase its proportion of GDP spent on oil from the current level of 3.3 per cent to 10.6 per cent by 2015. Christian Aid calculates that this financial burden will hit Africa's ability to deal with the consequences of climate change.
For Christian Aid, introducing non-carbon sources of power such as solar, wind, hydro, biofuels and geothermal, along with increasing energy efficiency, is essential if developing countries are to escape the twin dangers of climate change and poverty.
However, even if Africa rapidly adapts to clean energy sources, Christian Aid warns "the reality is that climate change is already taking place and will inevitably continue. Poor people will take the brunt, so we are calling on rich countries to help them adapt as the seas rise, the deserts expand, and floods and hurricanes become more frequent and intense. Specific aid packages should compensate poor countries for their losses, as well as helping them plot a clean route to development".
Despite this, Christian Aid is very positive about the advantages of switching to greener sources of energy.
For Christian Aid, "renewables do not contribute to greenhouse gas emissions; they are cheaper than oil will become; and they literally empower poor people to climb out of poverty and reach the MDGs. For these reasons renewables are simply the only option that makes sense for poor people".
It even goes so far as to state that "solar power seems even less expensive when you consider that, according to some estimates, if the World Bank redirected only one year's worth of its spending on fossil-fuel projects to small-scale solar installations in sub-Saharan Africa, it could provide ten million people with electricity".
The cost of solar power technology has been falling over the last 20 years, and Christian Aid expects costs to drop as more people switch to it, with the technology improving enormously.
However, the report states that "even as things stand, the cost of solar power may not be beyond Africa and the international community. For example, one estimate calculates that providing solar electricity to a village of 50 households would cost an average of 25,000 dollars. Assuming conservatively that the average household size in sub-Saharan Africa is five people, this works out at a cost of about 100 dollars per person.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
If one multiplies this by the number of people in sub-Saharan Africa without electricity - about 500 million - it works out at about 50 billion dollars. This figure compares favourably with the amount the region is likely to have to spend on oil over the next decade".
There are indications that more politicians in richer countries are taking up the challenge of promoting renewable energy. The British Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) Gordon Brown, who is tipped to become the next Prime Minister, has proposed a 20 billion dollar fund for the World Bank to help developing countries invest in alternative sources of energy and greater energy efficiency.
The publication of the Christian Aid report coincides with news that the Mozambican government is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank for an additional 50 million dollars in its reserves to strengthen its capacity to import refined fuels. According to Finance Minister Manuel Chang, the government target of eight per cent growth for this year may have to be reviewed downwards because of the sharp increase in the price of oil.
