Washington, DC — Voters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) voted last year in their first multiparty elections since 1965. Incumbent Joseph Kabila, who had assumed the presidency in 2001 following the assassination of his father, won the presidential elections, defeating challenger Jean-Pierre Bemba in a runoff.
The DRC still faces enormous challenges. In late January, more than 100 civilians in western DRC were killed when opposition demonstrations were violently quelled by police and soldiers; in March, between 300 and 500 people were killed in fighting between Bemba's guards and the army, which led to Bemba first seeking refuge in a foreign embassy and later leaving for Portugal. Questions linger about the progress made since elections and the success of the country's peace process.
The International Crisis Group's Jason K. Stearns, who served with the United Nations mission in the DRC from 2002 to 2004, spoke to allAfrica's Francois Gouahinga on post-election DRC. Excerpts:
What has happened in the DRC since last year's election?
There was a fair amount of euphoria after the elections, that were seen by many outside observers to be relatively free and fair. It was a huge logistical effort – one of the largest election efforts in the world – with an enormous country of 60 million people. But unfortunately, immediately after that, there was a fair amount of disappointment by both domestic as well as international actors on how the newly-elected government dealt with its opposition and with dissent.
Why the disappointment?
The first expression of this [dissent] was in January this year when a local opposition group, the Bundu dia Kongo group (BDK), in Bas-Congo province, to the west of Kinshasa, wanted to hold a demonstration to protest corruption and the provincial assembly election. While it was a fairly rowdy demonstration and several police officers were killed, the authorities reacted very brutally with disproportionate force…They massacred over a hundred people, in many cases when there was absolutely no reason for these people to be attacked or to be shot at. That was the first indication of how the government was going to deal with its opposition.
The second indication [of dealing with dissent] was in March in Kinshasa. Again there was a situation where… Jean-Pierre Bemba had a bodyguard unit that was too large, 400 to 500 people around him, that he obviously was not going to be able to keep. But again the government dealt in a very heavy-handed, disproportionate fashion with this instead of negotiating. Both sides dug in their heels and what ensued was probably the worst fighting that Kinshasa has ever seen, with over 200 people dead on the streets.
And after that fighting the opposition television stations were shut down, the opposition party headquarters were occupied by the presidential guard and numerous opposition politicians – we estimate over 80 – were either harassed or arrested by the police or the presidential guard. There was a broad-scale crackdown against the opposition and particularly in Kinshasa. The situation has gotten better now, so I think that the tensions have been diffused in Kinshasa.
How has the government performed?
[Another] disappointment that came after the elections is the relative lack of action by the newly-elected government. It has not done very much at all in terms of living up to the promises it had made to the electorate during the election campaign. There has been very little action by Prime Minister [Antoine] Gizenga's government ... [It] convenes fairly rarely and takes very few decisions despite the many challenges facing the country.
What type of financial situation is the government in?
The third development is the looming fiscal crisis, as the Congo is strapped for cash. They have been operating; they don't have a budget at the moment; they are pretty much running on fumes as it stands. And because of lack of transparency and accountability, the IMF cut the budgetary aid last year; all of the donors followed suit, so there is no direct budgetary aid to the Congo and they might not meet the completion point under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative of the World Bank, which means that their debt servicing might also go up significantly in 2008.
What is Jean-Pierre Bemba's future?
People have been talking about Bemba not coming back to the Congo because there is a possible trial or prosecution against [him] looming … [because] he had been threatened with a case of treason against him. In order to pursue this case, his senatorial, his parliamentary immunity would have to be lifted. In order to lift it, there needs to be a Senate vote.
It is far from certain that even if there was such a vote that… it could get a pass… They could press the vote and Bemba [could] actually win the vote, and his parliamentary immunity would then not be lifted. So, I think that it is a good time for Bemba in the sense that he does stand now a chance of coming back to the Congo and not having his parliamentary immunity lifted.
But the big outstanding question, which has almost always been the more important question for Bemba, is what is going to happen with his personal security. He has been pushing for a mixed large bodyguard, something that Kabila has been unwilling to give him. Kabila offered him 12 policemen… but I think Bemba has been asking for much more than that.
How is the security situation in eastern DRC?
This relative inaction by the government has allowed some of the militias to continue to destabilize the east. There are two militias that have been a serious problem in the past month. One is a militia led by the dissident general Laurent Nkunda, who is a former rebel – a Rwandan-backed rebel – who struck a peace deal with the government in late December. But immediately after signing this peace deal, he started launching operations against the second militia that's trouble, which is the FDLR [Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda], a Hutu militia that is led by the remnants of the Rwandan army and the militias that perpetrated the genocide in 1994.
That situation has festered and caused enormous displacement and suffering. We estimate that about 13,000 people are displaced. These are really two problems: One, there are local conflicts that have never been solved, but really [there is] also the problem of state capacity to deal with problems. The army has been unable to deal with insecurity in the east, and there is very little will by the government, it seems, to deal with the political problems in the east that have gone unaddressed during the transition.
Why the lack of political will, particularly given that the UN just renewed the mandate of the UN Mission to the Congo (Monuc)? Why are they not doing more to protect the civilians?
For the Congolese government, there is a bit of stagnation in the political process. There is just a lack of governance in general. If you look at the statements that have been put out by members of the Congolese government on the east, there [are] a lot of contradictions. Kabila sends the head of the air force, John Numbi, out there to solve the problem; he comes up with one recommendation. The governor of South Kivu then contradicts that; the governor of North Kivu says another thing; the Ministry of Interior says another thing…
My personal feeling from the governors' point of view is that there is a lot of confusion and they… have not been able to have a concerted policy towards how to deal with Nkunda… They would I think very much like to arrest him but they do not have the military capacity, so they are forced into negotiation with somebody they don't really want to negotiate [with]… President Kabila [is seen] by many in the west as a Rwandan or a Tanzanian and… as somebody put in power by the Rwandans. He is having a hard time negotiating with a Tutsi general [Nkunda]; he does not want to be seen as complicit with a Tutsi general. He is trying to walk a very fine line.
Monuc's position has always been on Nkunda that they should not get involved in trying to find a military solution. It would be very messy and it could actually harm local ethnic relations… They will not let Nkunda take Goma or make large advances in the field, but they are also not gonna go hunt him down in the bush.
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What are Nkunda's goals? How important is he?
He would like to see himself as the political representative of what he calls the marginalized minorities of the east. I believe he really means the Tutsi community… There [are] about 45,000 Congolese Tutsi refugees who have been in refugee camps in Rwanda since the mid 90s. He talks about his brothers and his cousins who are dying in these camps and he really wants to bring these people home... He sees himself as part of the political process, and in light of this, I think he wants to play an important role in the future military in the Congo.
He is well educated, he is fluent in English and French, as well as Kinyarwanda and Swahili, and he will quote all kinds of political leaders and teachers from Martin Luther King to Nelson Mandela. He sees himself as a visionary; he does not just see himself as a military leader.
Veteran opposition politician Kengo wa Dondo, who supported Bemba in the presidential election, was elected Senate President. How did that happen?
The selection of [Léonard] She Okitundu [the ruling coalition's candidate for Senate President] went against what many people in the AMP [the coalition] thought should have happened… I believe it was imposed from a few select individuals around Kabila. I don't think that She Okitundu spent a lot of time campaigning… It is a symptom of lack of party discipline within the AMP, and what some people are calling the arrogance of the AMP members that they just did not bother to go around to do what Kengo did.
Kengo has been campaigning for the last two or three months – ever since he was elected senator, he has been going around and talking to his fellow senators. It is a very different approach.
