Kenya's national elections are less than five months away, and the traditional political maneuvering is heating up. President Mwai Kibaki is reported to have entered into a political alliance with former President Daniel arap Moi, and the once powerful opposition alliance, the Orange Democratic Movement of Kenya (ODM), is plagued by internecine conflict between prospective presidential candidates.
In this interview, Dr. Adams Oloo, a political commentator and lecturer in the political science department at the University of Nairobi, tells Dennis Waweru that Kenyan politics are still "extremely tribal." Oloo also discussed some of the recent big stories in the country’s politics, as well as the larger picture in the race for the State House. Excerpts:
How tribal are Kenyan politics today?
Extremely tribal ... For you to win elections in Kenya, you need an excellent coalition… The election results will be determined depending on who can mobilize a coalition of ethnic votes to back him.
Don’t the issues that the candidates stand for matter?
It simply means that in Kenya it is identity which plays a critical role. Ideas, policies, ideology are in the back burner. In Kenya it is ethnicity, identity, political patronage that determine the game.
How would you grade President Mwai Kibaki's first term?
Well, it depends on how one is grading it. If you are comparing Kibaki with Moi, then you can say that he has done an excellent job. But if you are measuring him against the NARC [the National Rainbow Coalition] promises, then you can say that he has done 50 percent of the job.
What has he done well?
Where you rate him highly is more in terms of economic growth, expanding the democratic space, implementing free primary education. He will also take credit for the constituency development fund - although the opposition will argue that was a private member's motion - and people will say that you can rate him highly on the fact that the Kenya Revenue Authority is raising a lot of money, closing the loop holes. Also one can say that there is an infrastructure build-up going on in the country.
And how has he performed poorly?
One can also say that on security [and] on the constitutional issue, he has not done well... Although we are having economic growth, there has been inequality in its distribution, and also one can say that he has killed multiparty-ism, snatching from the opposition their members of parliament and all that.
What is the significance of the failed constitutional referendum to the upcoming elections?
You can rest assured that one of the election platforms of the opposition [will be] that this president has refused to give a new constitution because it gives him enormous powers to stand shoulders above all the other institutions of Kenya. It will be used against him.
How important is unity for the opposition?
The opposition is going to say is that Kibaki has been business as usual, that he has not brought the parliamentary changes that the people wanted, and that one of the key things the people want is a new constitution so that everybody feels a part and parcel of the country.
Now, whether it will work or not will basically depend on whether the opposition is united or not. In Kenyan politics it is only a united opposition that has managed to beat the incumbent. If the opposition is divided, it does not matter what issue they [raise]. An incumbent is always the front runner, they have the public media on their side, and also have a lot of lobbyists who want to buy their way into the future government of contract and tenders. It is never easy to beat an incumbent in Kenya.
Who will come out of the ODM power struggle?
I think in ODM, what is coming out very clearly is that the likely candidate will be Raila Odinga.
What does that mean to Kalonzo Musyoka and Uhuru Kenyatta, two other heavyweights in ODM?
It is becoming highly likely that Kalonzo Musyoka and Uhuru Kenyatta will pull out of ODM Kenya and go and form a realignment. That still is not yet a fact, but it is looking more and more likely.
What do you make of the new Moi/Kibaki alliance?
Moi would have loved Uhuru to be president. But [since]… Uhuru never made it, Moi is able to see that the fight is likely to narrow down between Kibaki and Odinga. And given a choice, Moi would rather have Kibaki than have Raila Odinga as the president of the country.
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Is Moi still that significant politically?
No… Outside the Kalenjin community he has no clout at all. Even within the Kalenjin community, his clout has waned. Moi is still a factor in terms of getting his former students in politics to listen to him, but gravity-wise I would say that his clout has dwindled quite a lot.
Is Kibaki still the heavy favorite to win a second term?
He is the front runner because ODM has not yet organized itself. But I think the moment ODM finally settles on a candidate and remains united, it will be a very close battle. As of now, because there is a lot of confusion and infighting in ODM, he is the front runner.
How will the Mungiki problem [killings involving the Mungiki “sect”] affect the upcoming elections?
The Mungiki issue... was more confined to Central Kenya and Nairobi... Most of the killings were among the Kikuyu community… I would say that while it is going to be an issue in the broader security campaign platform, I do not think those who are largely affected… will blame [Kibaki] and therefore not vote for him.
