Nairobi — Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) shock decision to suspend its participation in the Government of National Unity (GNU) points at the urgent need by the international community to force implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
The alternative, says a new report by the International Crisis Group, will be resumption of Sudan's North-South war. The report - Sudan: Breaking the Abyei Deadlock - demonstrates that the mounting tensions in the oil-rich Abyei region are the most dangerous threat to the truce that has held so far.
It examines the dispute over Abyei, the most volatile aspect of the CPA, that ended Sudan's 20-year civil war in which over two million people died. The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) is accused of violating the CPA by refusing to accept the "final and binding" ruling of the Abyei Boundary Commission, leaving an administrative and political vacuum.
"Negotiations with the SPLM/A are stalled, and both sides are building up their military forces around Abyei. To protect Sudan's fragile peace, implementation of the CPA's Abyei Protocol needs to be top of the agenda," says the report.
"The international community has to re-engage across the board on CPA implementation, but nowhere more urgently than Abyei, where the risk of a return to war is rising dramatically," says David Mozersky, Crisis Group's Horn of Africa project director.
Abyei is geographically, ethnically and politically caught between northern and southern Sudan. The CPA granted the disputed territory - which has a significant percentage of Sudan's oil reserves - a special administrative status and a 2011 referendum to decide whether to join what might then be an independent South.
The sequencing of implementation was clearly set out in the Abyei Protocol, beginning with border demarcation. However, the situation continues to fester, mainly due to National Congress Party intransigence. The risk of renewed conflict must be addressed at both national and local levels.
Space for dialogue between the Ngok Dinka and Misseriya communities must also be created to build much needed trust.
Oil plays a strong role in the impasse. The parties need to open a new dialogue on oil issues, including a plan to establish a revenue sharing agreement between North and South beyond 2011, for the contingency that Abyei votes to join an independent South.
"What happens in Abyei is likely to determine whether Sudan consolidates the peace or returns to war," says François Grignon, Crisis Group's Africa Programme Director.
"Progress there would unlock a broader set of problems challenging CPA implementation, just as renewed violence would likely break the Agreement - with tragic consequences," it says.
The dispute over the Abyei region is the most volatile aspect of Sudan's 2005 CPA and risks unravelling that increasingly shaky deal. Negotiations between the National Congress Party and the former rebel SPLM/A are stalled, and both sides are building up their military forces around Abyei.
The SPLM's decision to suspend its participation in the GNU in protest of the National Congress Party's non-implementation of the CPA, marks the most dangerous political escalation since the peace deal was signed.
On its face, resolution of the Abyei issue appears relatively straightforward. Bringing peace to the region will require addressing both the national political dimension between the National Congress Party and the SPLM and the local dimension between the Ngok Dinka and the neighbouring Misseriya communities.
According to ICG, five steps offer a way forward: First, the CPA's international guarantors, authored the Abyei Protocol, must send a strong, co-ordinated message to the National Congress Party that it is legally bound by the Abyei Boundary Commission report and expected to implement it in good faith.
Those who signed the CPA, and need to become more active again, include Kenya, Uganda, Egypt, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK, the US, the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) and its international partners forum - the Arab League, the UN, the African Union and the EU.
Secondly, the Crisis Group has argued in the past for targeted, multilateral sanctions to influence the regime to implement its commitments under the CPA and in Darfur. Given the fragility of Abyei, pressure is urgently needed to obtain acceptance of the Abyei Boundary Commission report.
Tension in and around Abyei must be de-escalated. The parties view the key measures - demarcation of boundaries and appointment of the local administration - as determining the likely outcome of the referendum and have dug in accordingly.
The international community can help change this dynamic by facilitating independent dialogue between the Misseriya and Ngok Dinka in order to strengthen the guarantees for continued Misseriya grazing rights in Abyei beyond the referendum and by increasing development projects in Dinka and Misseriya areas. These efforts should be led by the UNMIS, with the full backing of the CPA's international guarantors.
The role of oil in the impasse must be acknowledged and dealt with in good faith and the wealth-sharing provisions of the Abyei Protocol carried out.
While Abyei's oil is being depleted and revenue estimates beyond 2007 begin to drop significantly, existing fields contain the majority of oil in the North, and revenues from them are critical to the survival of the National Congress Party.
The Crisis Group calculates that revenue from Abyei's oilfields was roughly $599 million for 2005 and $670 million for 2006.
More generally, oil is tied directly to the CPA's viability. The parties need to open a new, transparent dialogue on oil issues, including a plan to establish a revenue-sharing agreement between North and South beyond 2011, for the contingency that Abyei votes to join an independent South.
The National Petroleum Commission, the joint National Congress Party-SPLM oversight body created by the CPA, must be allowed to play its role and have direct access to all oil production-related data.
The newly appointed head of UNMIS, Ashraf Qazi, should prioritise working with the parties to establish a demilitarised zone in Abyei in order to separate the militaries and reduce the risk of renewed conflict.
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Thousands of Misseriya troops have recently opted to join the SPLA, a move resented by the National Congress Party, which led to a recent dangerous confrontation between army and SPLA forces. While the focus should initially be on Abyei, a demilitarised zone could eventually be extended along the entire North-South border.
Abyei's fate is tied directly to that of the CPA. While Abyei itself is a bone of contention, it is also tied into broader CPA challenges such as transparency and revenue sharing in the oil sector and the demarcation of the North-South border.
If peace takes hold in Abyei and implementation moves forward, it can be a model for other North-South border issues and unlock the implementation of additional contentious issues.
If the dispute is not resolved soon, however, it will increasingly retard progress on broader CPA implementation and encourage the country's descent back into war.
The risk of renewed conflict in Abyei must be addressed on both the national and local levels but the primary challenge is to overcome the National Congress Party's resistance to implementing the agreement in good faith, beginning with the acceptance of the ABC report.
The parties are at a stalemate, and efforts to create a temporary administration will likely remain stuck over disagreements on the boundaries and representation in that administration.
The National Congress Party intransigence is closely tied to Abyei's oil reserves. The international community, led by the witnesses and guarantors to the CPA, needs to send a clear and consistent message to the regime that it is legally committed to the ABC report, and implementation must be based on its findings.
