Polokwane — Zubeida Jaffer reveals the thinking behind the belief of President Thabo Mbeki's supporters that they can still prevail in the race for the party presidency now under way in South Africa's northern province of Limpopo.
As I write, long lines of ANC conference delegates are snaking through squat university buildings that resemble a high school. Bear in mind that this university, now known as the University of Limpopo, was the former Turfloop university, one of the ethnic institutions established under apartheid. Its very architecture speaks of this past inferior status.
The lines of delegates are waiting to vote for the top six officials of the organisation, filmed by camera crews who came out in full force, trying to capture the unfolding drama. By later this evening we should know who will be the ANC's president for the next five years.
If it is Thabo Mbeki, this would not mean that he would become the country's president in 2009. But if Jacob Zuma wins, he will head not only one of the most powerful organisations on the African continent but is set also to become the future president of South Africa.
All the media reports and vocal expressions of cheers from the floor point towards a Zuma win. Over the last two days, brief conversations with the Mbeki camp left me with the impression that they had opted to put a positive spin on their tenuous position. The assurances that they would they would win at the polls had an empty ring to them.
I was puzzled. Why would such seasoned activists known for their organisational skill choose to put their heads in the sand? Why were they insisting that they stood a chance and yet could provide no concrete evidence of their strength?
Today, as the voting proceeded, I was able for the first time to break through this façade. Two senior Mbeki supporters gave me a detailed breakdown of the votes they were counting on. And it helped me to understand their show of quiet confidence.
Tonight will show either that they were completely deluded or that they have organised solidly and taken no chances. Let me share with you what they expect the outcome to be.
To win, either candidate has to win 51 percent, or 1,951 of the 3,900 potential votes. The Mbeki campaign (let's call it that) expects conservatively to get 2,095 votes. This would give it a lead of 190, with the Zuma camp accruing 1,805 votes. Such an outcome would represent a dramatic shift from earlier indications that Zuma was in the lead by 800 votes.
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At first I thought this was more spin, but the breakdown was confirmed by a third supporter. I was asked not to disclose all the figures for each province but these are in my possession. I will share just three estimates: the Eastern Cape (720), the Free State (179) and the Western Cape (167). The Mbeki supporters accepted they would not receive any votes from the Youth League but were counting on 36 votes from the Women's League. They also expected 42 of the 63 members of the National Executive Committee to vote for their candidate.
Interestingly, they argue that the uncontrolled outpouring of support for Jacob Zuma at the opening of the conference made it easier for them to win extra votes because many people were disturbed by a phenomenon that was quite uncharacteristic of the ANC. In the view of Mbeki's supporters, conference delegates—accustomed to the opening being a showcase moment when the spotlight of the country and the world falls on the organisation—were alarmed by the image the Zuma camp sent out.
I have to assume that President Mbeki's approach at the conference is informed by the understanding that his campaign has sown up the necessary votes. This explains why he has repeatedly urged that we wait for the actual voting. It also explains the mood at the private lunch which he and the first lady, Zanele Mbeki, had with Jacob Zuma immediately after the raucous opening session. When photographer Alf Khumalo went to deliver photographs to them that he had from his exile days, he found them together in a relaxed mood.
While all other indications are that the Mbeki campaign is set to lose in a big way, his team has certainly entered the fray with the strong belief that they are assured victory.
