Nairobi — The choice is Mr Jacob Zuma's to make. He can demonstrate that he is a leader who can drive change in a responsible and orderly manner that will not halt South Africa's forward march in democracy and economic growth; or he can exhibit reckless and short-sighted leadership that will seek to address grave economic and social concerns in the disastrous style of Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe.

With a resounding victory over President Thabo Mbeki in the African National Congress poll, Mr Zuma is now the hot favourite to become President of South Africa in 2009. That is the year President Mbeki finishes his final term. With no direct presidential election and assuming that the ANC will still be as dominant as it is today, then the party leader almost automatically become the Head of State.

The outcome of the party election has left some with a great deal of trepidation and foreboding. The unease goes beyond the dark cloud hanging over Mr Zuma after trials for rape and corruption. The new party leader has been adopted by a wing of the ANC unhappy with the cautious economic and social policies pursued since the end of apartheid.

The cerebral and aloof Mr Mbeki succeeded the saintly Nelson Mandela, the first post-apartheid president, and continued the policies designed largely to maintain economic and political stability. But that has not stilled the impatience of a growing black under class which feels that apartheid may have officially ended, but the economic and social divides remain firmly in place.

Mr Mbeki lost because he was seen to represent the interests of a black elite happy to maintain the status quo as long as they get a piece of the pie.

Now, the people will be looking to the new ANC leader to address their grievances. Mr Zuma but could become the most powerful man in South Africa as Mr Mbeki is reduced to a lame-duck president as his term ends.

How Mr Zuma behaves in the interim will determine whether he deserves to be entrusted with the leadership of Africa's economic and military powerhouse.