The events on Monday were a definite step forward in the effort to end Kenya's political crisis, but Tuesday's events quickly became a major step backward.
On Monday, both President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga hinted that they were close to meeting. Kibaki invited Odinga to the State House for talks on Friday afternoon.
On Tuesday, however, Odinga rejected a meeting with Kibaki, calling the offer "public relations gimmickry." Odinga reportedly objected to Kibaki's refusal to invite John Kufuor, the Ghanaian president and African Union chairperson, to the meeting. The opposition has consistently called for international mediation, a call Kibaki objects to. Monday's pleasantries did not overcome this key sticking point.
Kibaki then named a part of this cabinet on national television. The cabinet includes members of Kibaki's Party of National Unity and two big names: Kalonzo Muskoya, the third-place finisher in the presidential election, has been named vice president, and Uhuru Kenyatta, the son of Kenya's first president, is a minister. Kibaki's decision has reportedly sparked protests in Kisumu, a stronghold for Odinga in western Kenya, and in parts of Nairobi.
Kufuor, known as the "Gentle Giant" faces a giant task. Kibaki's move will be seen as polarizing, and it is doubtful either side will want to talk. Kufuor’s visit could be short. The highly-respected Law Society of Kenya chairperson said that Kibaki's move was a rejection of mediation. Najum Mustaq of the Inter Press Service calls the reconciliation process "doomed."
After a relatively peaceful start to the week, a fresh round of violence could erupt, especially in the Rift Valley, where emotions are heated. Odinga is likely to call for protests, and this time he is unlikely to call them off, sparking a possible showdown between his supporters and the security services. The potential for worse violence is high.
What does all this mean? Where does it go from here?
Kibaki's ability to govern is still tenuous at best. Parliament is supposed to open next week, but it is unlikely opposition MPs will show up, handicapping Kibaki's ability to do anything of substance.
Moreover, he stands to lose what is left of his international standing; already the United States, a key donor, has criticized his appointment of a cabinet as "disappointing." U.S. envoy Jendayi Frazer is not leaving Nairobi any time soon and the international press is sticking with the story.
The world will also be watching Odinga, who claimed on Tuesday that he is related to Barack Obama, the U.S. presidential candidate. The Times of London recently wrote in an editorial that Odinga has the "moral high ground, but has hardly been statesmanlike." The newspaper also criticized Odinga for invoking the example of Cote d'Ivoire, where a rigged election helped spark a civil war.
Kibaki faces an uphill battle to maintain power, but the events of Tuesday probably strengthened him at home. A unity government was always a risky proposition, and the chances of Odinga entering one were probably slim. By filling the key positions in his cabinet with loyalists, Kibaki has squashed the initiative.
The other two likely scenarios to end the crisis – a recount or a new vote – will probably have to happen through the courts, and Odinga has voiced his distrust of the judicial system. A recount seems extraordinarily unlikely, considering the Electoral Commission of Kenya already certified the vote. Moreover, at this point accurate records and tallies probably do not exist, so Odinga might not even want a recount.
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Another election could be arranged, but Kibaki has strengthened his hand by naming Musyoka, who received about nine percent of the vote, as vice president. This changes the game totally: in a new vote, Odinga probably cannot defeat a Kibaki-Musyoka alliance.
Musyoka has greatly improved his political prospects by going into a coalition with Kibaki. He is extremely close to the presidency, considering Kibaki's age, and he has to be Tuesday’s biggest winner. The loser might be Kenyatta, who seemed likely to get the backing of Kibaki's supporters in the next election. Now that support might go to Musyoka.
Of course, the next Kenyan election seems a long way off, and the biggest losers are the Kenyan people. Tuesday was a setback. The events make the situation much messier, and the search for a solution more challenging.
