Cape Town — South African political commentator Zubeida Jaffer reflects from Parliament in Cape Town on the challenges facing the ruling African National Congress as its recent changes in leadership begin to impact on the business of government.
President Thabo Mbeki was in an unenviable position when he stepped up to the podium to deliver his penultimate State of the Nation address at the annual opening of Parliament in Cape Town on Friday. Not only did he have to calm an anxious nation faced with considerable difficulties: he had to be aware that not all eyes were on him. They flitted between him and the man in the public gallery above him, waiting in the wings to replace him.
Mbeki's challenge was that he had to speak to the nation, yet be vigilant that he did not offend the section of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) led by newly-elected party leader, Jacob Zuma, and his team.
The president played it safe by uncharacteristically giving considerable time to acknowledging the deep unease about the future of South Africa. In the past, his approach during these annual addresses has been to focus on the government's strategies and work achievements, often ignoring what was on the public mind. His penchant for poetry and philosophy, although skilfully incorporated into his speeches, often skirted the real pain in the hearts of many.
On Friday, he connected with the daily worries gripping South Africans – an electricity supply crisis, rising food and fuel prices and the instability of the country's crime-fighting units. He did not entirely abandon literature – early on he quoted the opening lines of Charles Dickens' Tale of Two Cities: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness… we had everything before us, we had nothing before us…" The passage captured vividly the intensity of the feeling permeating present-day South Africa.
The electricity shortages were not only a crisis, said Mbeki, but constituted a national emergency requiring that everybody work together. "We must use the current adversity to ensure that our homes and economy become more energy efficient." At the same time, he did not abrogate government responsibility for the crisis – on behalf of the government and the electricity supplier, Eskom, he repeated an earlier apology for the monumental failure of supply. He also called on the public to "please feel free to name and shame" government departments which unnecessarily left their building lights on.
As always, he stopped short of firing anyone for mismanagement, opting instead for "common action rather than recrimination."
While recrimination is of little value in the face of such huge and daunting challenges, consequences for lack of performance surely have to be built into South Africa's system. Until now, the public and business have carried the cost of government bungles. No individual minister, no individual public servant or Eskom manager has felt the consequences in any way.
So while his speech was peppered with a commitment to a new theme – of "business unusual" – one was left with the feeling that we have heard it all before. Will the team of "Energy Champions" he will announce shortly be prominent and knowledgeable South Africans? Will they assist the energy efficiency campaign and inform investors and communities about what is actually happening and how they can help to address their current challenges?
Or will Mbeki be hamstrung and fail to choose the best in our nation known for getting the job done? Were this to happen, it would be a disaster for those waiting to take power in 18 months' time. Irrespective of who they are, they will be faced with the same challenges: electricity provision, creating jobs, reducing food prices and combating crime. And alongside all the daily problems, the imperative to forge a nation remains.
Up in the visitors' gallery, Jacob Zuma cut a subdued figure, perhaps to avoid overshadowing the president. But for many, Friday was not only about what Mbeki was saying; it was about what Zuma will be saying and doing.
When Mbeki mentioned Zuma's name while listing visiting dignitaries, the gallery and assembly applauded. When Mbeki confirmed his commitment to some of the decisions taken at the ANC's recent conference in Polokwane – such as making men as well as women eligible to receive state pensions at 60 – Zuma applauded. At least half a million men will benefit from this decision to equalise the age of eligibility.
Few doubt that Jacob Zuma is more skilled than Thabo Mbeki at connecting to South Africans' pain. While this is an important ingredient of strong leadership, in the end what also matters is the quality of the action that is taken to address the challenges we face. So far what Zuma has said since his election as party leader gives little cause for concern. The proof of his leadership will lie in what he actually does. It is important that initiatives which have worked should be strengthened – not reorganised and dismantled.
Mbeki listed 24 government priorities on Friday that will require his urgent attention. But he has little time left to do justice to most of them. It would perhaps be better if he chose two or three that would give South Africans a real sense that progress is being made. At the same time, he needs to prepare for a smooth handover of the reins of power to a new leadership in 2009.
His conduct and those of his supporters at Polokwane offer some assurance of a peaceful transfer of power. They did not walk out in a huff after their defeat nor did rank and file members run amok, giving violent expression to their dissatisfaction. This, probably more than anything else, provides a solid foundation of a democratic dispensation that signals hope.
Right now it is difficult to see that hope through the unease that grips all of us. Mbeki's speech, fortunately, helped to settle some nerves. He could have settled more if the end of the speech had not been quite so flat.
But what Mbeki does in his last months in power matters less than what Jacob Zuma and his team do this year. They have their work cut out. By July or August, they will be faced with the difficulty of choosing a candidate for the presidency at precisely the time Zuma goes on trial on corruption charges.
The current thinking in the party is to place before the public a team of people, one of whom will be president. Will they be calling on the public to vote ANC and accept that the president could be anyone of three or four – perhaps Jacob Zuma, Kgalema Motlanthe (the deputy leader) or Mathews Phosa (the treasurer-general)?
Zuma's recent intervention to stop rank-and-file members of the ANC from trying to dislodge provincial premiers and their staff from their posts showed wisdom, indicating that he and his team realise that right now, unnecessary disruption of the delivery of government services would only mean they would inherit a disabled bureaucracy. The ANC would be wise to strengthen some of the priorities the president identified on Friday and to aim to change incumbents selectively, bringing in those who can enhance quality.
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However, the drama surrounding the elite crime-fighting unit, the Scorpions, has all the potential for foolishness. In implementing the ANC's decision that they should be disbanded, great care has to be taken not to throw the baby out with the bathwater. The Scorpions are not blameless but surely the elements of their conduct that disturb the party can be changed instead of sacrificing the years of painstaking work that has gone into establishing this institution?
The Zuma team has sent an unequivocal message to the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) that it should act as a true public broadcaster rather than being at the service of a few powerful individuals. But will the ANC Youth League be as vociferous in its views once its leader, Fikile Mbalula, and his supporters feel comfortably ensconced in the corridors of power, with greater access to the medium? Will they be wise and mobilise their constituency to support their call to ban alcohol sales on Sundays, or will they continue to encourage our youth to be undignified in both their speech and conduct?
With the eyes and hopes of South Africa flitting between Mbeki and Zuma, their choice on Friday to choreograph a careful dance, each not stepping on the other's toes, may just lay the basis needed to ensure a smooth transition next year. If they draw on the wisest sides of themselves, the broad public whom they should be serving may yet be spared the full onslaught of an age of foolishness.
Zubeida Jaffer is a visiting associate at the Centre for African Studies at the University of Cape Town.
