Washington, DC — As Zimbabweans head to landmark polls Saturday to elect a new president, few observers expect a truly fair outcome. Many flaws in the electoral process are obvious, from legal loopholes designed to favor President Robert Mugabe's Zanu PF to the outright banning of foreign media and many international observers. Still, many Zimbabweans hope their vote will make a difference for the better.
Experts on Zimbabwe from within and outside the country gathered for a panel discussion at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC, Thursday to give decision-makers in the U.S. capital city the benefit of a more detailed briefing and discussion on the elections than is normally available in the U.S. media.
Panelist Ray Choto, a Zimbabwean journalist and senior editor at the U.S.-government funded radio station, Voice of America, told the audience that the hopes for change of most Zimbabweans were pinned on being able use their votes to end desperate hunger and poverty.
"The human crisis is beyond comprehension," he said. "People cannot afford to eat."
Zimbabweans have little or no access to basic services like education, healthcare, water, and sanitation, and the inflation rate is 100,000 percent. New banknotes are being printed with expiration dates because the Central Bank has predicted they will be worthless in only a few months, and the government has had to buy electricity from neighboring Mozambique to provide light for polling stations. Ultimately, said Choto, Saturday's polls will be a "vote of the belly."
However, Thomas Melia, deputy executive director of Freedom House, a U.S.-based advocacy organization, said that on a recent trip to Zimbabwe he noticed "a rising anxiety level" looming over opposition parties' "hopefulness" for change.
Obstacles at the polls
Recent constitutional amendments provided for Zimbabwe's first harmonized vote, with presidential, parliamentary and local elections being held on the same day.
Thus voters will be presented Saturday with four different ballots – one for presidential elections, and three for parliamentary and local-level elections. South Africa's main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, has expressed concern that there has not been enough voter education to make the new system work.
Another concern expressed by the opposition and by the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), a coalition of voter-education focused non-governmental organizations barred from working during elections, is over a recent change in electoral law that prohibits voting outside of one's ward. In previous elections, Zimbabweans could vote anywhere within their constituency. Just a few weeks ago, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) decreed that voters must vote within their designated ward. According to Melia, many Zimbabweans do not know in which ward they must vote.
Also many voters live in neighboring countries - notably South Africa. But the government's provisions for Zimbabweans to vote outside the country, said Melia, are "only available to government officials, and not economic refugees."
On Thursday, SW Radio Africa, a London-based Zimbabwe news site, reported that presidential votes would be counted in constituencies first and again at a "coalition command centre" in the capital, Harare. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) had previously claimed that the count in Harare could provide an opportunity for rigging if observers are restricted from close observation of counting by ward and constituency.
Possible intimidation tactics and the threat of violence
Zimbabwean voters may also be subject to myriad intimidation tactics. Until recently, police officers were to be stationed 100 meters from all polling stations. As of last just last week, electoral law was changed to allow police inside polling stations with voters. According to Choto, ordinary Zimbabweans will be greatly intimidated by a police presence at polling stations because the police are "partisan" in favor of Mugabe, made up of former combatants, and headed by a known former military leader.
According to Choto, the army's open support of Mugabe and declaration that they will not recognize the election of any other candidate sounds, to ordinary Zimbabweans, like "if Tsvangirai wins, [the army] is going to stage a coup."
With a "partisan" police force, a history of brutality towards demonstrators and tensions running high, violence is not unexpected. "Someone will be unhappy," said Choto. Sanctions imposed by Western countries may limit access to and mobilization of aid in the event of widespread violence, Melia noted.
"Free and fair"
However, some analysts, including Choto and Melia, believe the polls could be declared "free and fair" by observer teams. Mugabe has banned Western countries from sending observers, but has approved delegations from other African countries, from African governmental groupings and countries such as China, Iran, Libya, and Sudan. Foreign Minister Simbarashe Mumbengegwi told the Times of London on March 8 that Sudan and Libya will be allowed "on the basis of objectivity and impartiality in their relationship with Zimbabwe."
A team of African Union (AU) observers will be allowed to monitor the polls along with observers from the SADC. However, Melia said, the Zimbabwean government blocked observers from SADC's "better trained" Parliamentary Forum in favor of a delegation from the SADC secretariat.
The candidates' chances
Beyond electoral technicalities, opposition candidates face great challenges in winning the presidency.
Simba Makoni, an independent candidate and former member of Mugabe's Zanu PF, says he broke away from Mugabe's regime because he believes the country's problems are the result of the "failure of national leadership," the Zimbabwe Independent reported on March 8. This is the first poll in which a longtime Mugabe supporter and prominent member of Zanu PF has run against Mugabe. Many inside Zanu PF considered him a candidate for succession in the party; however, "what you have here," said Melia, "is a primary being fought out in a general election."
Makoni's entire political career, including a high-level appointment in SADC, was supported by Mugabe, Choto noted, adding that some Zimbabweans suspect he may be receiving covert support from Vice President Joyce Mujuru. If Zimbabwean voters are looking for change, doubts over Makoni's dedication to rooting out corruption in the régime that he formerly served may kill his chance at the presidency, Choto argued.
Longtime Mugabe challenger and MDC candidate Morgan Tsvangirai is "very much ahead in terms of support in the rural areas," Choto said. In Zimbabwe, rural areas have long been Zanu PF strongholds and thus Tsvangirai's popularity there is significant.
According to Choto, Makoni has turned to Tsvangirai for support but has been rebuffed. The competition between the two candidates could ultimately require a solution "like in Kenya," Choto argued.
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Possibility of a second round
Zimbabwe's Electoral Act stipulates that a winning candidate must win 50 percent of the total votes plus one (sometimes referred to as 51 percent) to be declared the winner. If no candidate passes this threshold, the top two must face each other in a runoff election no more than 21 days later. This year, with two fairly strong opposition candidates vying for the presidency, Mugabe's chances of getting 50-plus-one votes are reduced.
However, the Zimbabwe Guardian reported on March 21 that the law is somewhat ambiguous: an addendum to the act uses slightly different language, stating that the candidate "who simply gets the most votes" must be declared the winner. Additionally, said Melia, "a second round depends on Mugabe accepting the vote count."
Choto said he believes the opposition, and particularly Tsvangirai's MDC, could have a chance at winning the necessary 50-plus-one votes if rural supporters' votes reflect their enthusiasm at rallies: "We send our reporters into rural areas. They see thousands… of people attending opposition rallies. That never used to happen in Zimbabwe – the rural areas were a no-go area for the opposition… and the climate of fear is dissolving. But come Election Day… we're not quite sure whether the thousands of people who have gone to attend opposition rallies are going to vote for the opposition. If they were to vote, that means Mugabe's chances of winning this election are very slim. But there are fears that Mugabe might win the election through technical fraud."
Choto counts himself among those skeptical for of Mugabe's commitment to honest elections. In Saturday's poll, Choto said, Robert Mugabe is still "the player, the referee, and the judge."
