With Zimbabwe's election results trickling out in what appears to be a heavily-manipulated process, what are the true results, particularly of the presidential polls?
Most journalists covering the election from Harare gave most credence on Tuesday to a survey which the independent network of civic groups, the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), published on Monday, projecting that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai would win 49.4 percent against President Robert Mugabe's 41.4 percent.
Since the ZESN's projection was based on a random sample of 425 of the country's more than 9,000 polling stations, and estimated its margin of error as up to 2.4 per cent, it left open the possibility of a run-off election between the two main candidates. (The winner has to secure 50 percent-plus-one of the votes to avoid a run-off.)
Earlier, Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change was suggesting on the basis of its figures from polling stations that it had won 60 percent of the vote.
The official results of the parliamentary elections, released slowly in batches during Monday and early Tuesday, showed the parties running neck-and-neck, with the ruling Zanu PF pulling slightly into the lead on Tuesday morning.
But given the long delay between the posting of results in local constituencies and their announcement by the electoral commission in Harare, it was only outlets such as the pro-Zanu PF Herald in Harare and the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) – closely aligned to the ruling African National Congress – which chose to anchor their coverage on official results.
Instead, most independent media began to look ahead on the assumption that Mugabe faces defeat, whether immediately or in a run-off (when votes cast for the third candidate, former finance minister Simba Makoni, could reasonably be expected to go to Tsvangirai).
We carried a piece yesterday from the Institute of War and Peace Reporting, suggesting that Mugabe was about to steal the election. Today, Dumisani Muleya, reporting for Johannesburg's Business Day, took the story a step further, saying that after Mugabe met with security chiefs on Sunday:
Security sources said Mugabe and the JOC decided to withhold the presidential election results and release the outcomes of the parliamentary, senate and local council polls in small batches to manage the volatile situation and prepare the nation for a Mugabe victory.
The British press have been scrutinising the possibility of a rigged election for some days. The day before the elections, a report from the Daily Telegraph's reputable team in Harare quoted a source in the Central Intelligence Organisation saying the rigging was planned earlier this year.
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Yesterday The Independent's Daniel Howden – pointing to the importance of posting local parliamentary election results in this election – said that around the country, these figures showed "the writing's on the wall" for Mugabe.
Today, in similarly bold fashion, Howden said a "tremendous power struggle" was playing out in Harare.
Tsvangirai met security chiefs on Sunday to try to work out a deal, without success, he wrote. Now opposition leaders had gone into hiding and "factions within the ruling party and the security apparatus scrambled for any alternative to conceding defeat."
Howden also reported rumours that Mugabe had left the country. On Tuesday morning, the SABC reported a Zanu PF official as denying Mugabe had gone to Malaysia.
In the midst of the drama, Mugabe popped up on Business Day's front page. The paper reported that the president, looking tired, had announced in his offices in Harare that Zimbabwe was bidding to host the 2015 Cricket World Cup.
Only the last name of the reporter – Wiseman Nogothere – read with the date of the story – April 1 – explained its bizarre nature.
