As Southern Sudan prepares to become an independent nation in July, the northern government in Khartoum faces enormous challenges. Disputes simmer in Darfur, to the west, with more than four million displaced people. At the same time, clashes this month in the disputed Abyei region could re-ignite conflict along the unsettled border between north and south.
At the same time, the downfall of authoritarian regimes in Tunisia and neighboring Egypt have emboldened Sudan's pro-democracy activists. On 30 January, police violently quelled demonstrations in Khartoum and other centers, arresting many, including several journalists. One student died, and authorities closed two universities. Protesters promise to maintain the pressure.
Late last year, the Mo Ibrahim Foundation convened a forum in Mauritius around the theme of regional integration. In what proved a striking harbinger of developments in north Africa and beyond, participant after participant spoke of the need for old regimes to give way to a new generation - technically savvy, entrepreneurial and committed to transparent, democratic governance.
In a column published in the 6 January Financial Times, just before the southern Sudan independence referendum, Mo Ibrahim articulates the sadness of many Sudanese that their country has "torn itself apart". He warns that Africa must find ways to improve governance and cooperate.
One evening, some 40 years ago, a progressive north Sudanese was giving a lecture in Khartoum. He was talking about the problems posed by the chronic underdevelopment of south Sudan, and the need to entrench brotherhood and unity among all Sudanese if we were to develop as a nation.
A southern man stood up and brought the audience back to earth. "That is all fine, sir," he said to the speaker. "But will you allow me to marry your sister?"
The prejudice to which he alluded has remained sadly relevant up to today, when the south of my country is preparing to vote in a referendum on independence.
Late last year, my foundation held its annual forum in Mauritius, a beautiful country which has led our Index of African Governance for the past four years. Some 300 African opinion leaders came together to discuss the economic integration of the continent. The debate was not about whether we need integration: African markets, as well as African voices, are too fragmented to compete globally. Rather, the debate was about why we are moving towards closer political and economic co-operation so slowly.
In the evening, as everyone danced joyfully to the music of Youssou N'Dour and Angelique Kidjo, there was a cloud hanging over the Sudanese guests among us. A woman was crying as her colleagues tried to calm her. While other Africans were celebrating their coming together, we knew that in a few weeks our country would start to break apart.
Later that night I joined my Sudanese friends from all corners of the country, the north, the south and Darfur. The meeting was reflective, sad and awkward. Looking at my friends, I wondered how each would have responded to that 40-year-old question.
Sudan has been an experiment that resonated across Africa: if we, the largest country on the continent, reaching from the Sahara to the Congo, bridging religions, cultures and a multitude of ethnicities, were able to construct a prosperous and peaceful state from our diverse citizenry, so too could the rest of Africa.
That we have failed should sound a warning to all Africans. Sudan, at one million square miles, is the continent's largest country, sharing borders with nine other states. The fault lines that have divided us as a people extend from Eritrea to Nigeria. If Sudan starts to crumble, the shock waves will spread.
Khartoum today projects a sense of normality, modernity and relative affluence. This is in sharp contrast to the rest of the country. Lack of investment, underdevelopment and the exclusion of populations on the periphery from the political process has resulted in alienation. It has strengthened local identities.
We have not nurtured that sense of brotherhood and unity. Rather, since independence the way Sudan has been governed has undermined any potential for a common Sudanese purpose.
President Omar al-Bashir's regime has aggravated the problem by seeking absolute power and repressing dissent. The result has been the civil wars in the south, the east and in Darfur to the west. Our country has torn itself apart.
The separation of the south following the forthcoming referendum on January 9 is inevitable. The least we can do now is to separate peacefully and amicably.
I do not believe that either the ruling National Congress party (NCP) in Khartoum or the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), which governs the south, want to fight. War would almost certainly bring an end to NCP rule in the north and devastate an already impoverished south. Leaders on both sides are smart enough to know that.
The north must now focus on finding a peaceful solution to the separate conflict in Darfur, and the leaders of the three main rebel movements there must come together around a coherent agenda to achieve this.
The government in Khartoum feels isolated and under siege, facing criticism from within its own ranks, the population at large and even its Arab neighbours, who are usually tolerant of each others' misdeeds. It needs to reflect on the outcomes of 21 years of absolute rule - and address its legacy, to which partition will now be added. If you are in a hole, stop digging.
But decent governments need decent opposition. The crumbling old opposition parties in Khartoum, led by the same grand old men who were there when I was at school, lack vision or even coherence.
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The south faces its own enormous task of nation-building. Civil war and underdevelopment have left the region with little infrastructure and few institutions. Moreover, the south is not as homogeneous as often portrayed: there too a national identity must be constructed, representative of the diversity of its people.
At our meeting in Mauritius we all agreed that Africa's future is in its own hands. Freedom of movement of people, goods and capital is essential for the development of our sub-scale economies and for maximising the potential of our immense resources. Regional economic communities across Africa, the African Union and the African Development Bank are all focusing on this as a top priority.
Sudan cannot afford to be on the wrong side of history. The north and south will have to work together, but will they? Less than two decades before the independence of India and the creation of Pakistan, Winston Churchill claimed: "India is a geographic term. India is no more a country than the equator is a country." It is with great sadness that we Sudanese must recognise that the same rings true for us.
The writer is chairman of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation and founder of Celtel, the telecoms group.
AllAfrica thanks the Financial Times for permission to publish this column. See also, Rebecca Garang's requiem for the vision of a "New Sudan", coupled with a pledge to make Southern Sudan a model of development.
