The North African States are located in an arid region with a Saharan climate to the South and a Mediterranean climate to the North, typified as one of the world’s most water-scarce and dry regions.
The revolutionary wave of pro-democracy demonstrations that swept across North Africa in 2011 changed the landscape of the region. Media coverage has tended to focus on the upheavals and political meanderings; yet there has been little talk of climate change which is fast emerging as the fundamental challenge of our time. North Africa serves as an axis of civilisations, a region characterised by water scarcity and an arid geography, ensuring it secures its status as a key hotspot for climate variability and vulnerability according to the renowned IPCC (2007) Report. The region remains the most heavily populated sub-region of the Arab world, its diversity reflected in the bountiful resource economies like Algeria and Libya and the resource-scarce Egypt and Morocco (in comparison to their respective populations). The North African states are housed within ‘one of five eco-regions of the world’s dry areas’. According to the United Nations Environmental Programme, North Africa is the driest sub-region in Africa, characterised by harsh desert conditions and inadequate water resources. Freshwater availability is becoming an increasing problem primarily due to increased water usage linked to population increases. Climate change will challenge water supplies across the world; however, existing water stressed regions such as North and sub-Saharan Africa are likely to face severe water resource concerns. Given North Africa’s geography and global position, it is set to experience a myriad of climate and environment related concerns.
The Humanitarian Response Index estimates 5 million climate death over the next years (without an effective response) and up-to 10 million living under threat from climate driven desertification by 2030. Despite the tenuous links between disasters and migration, the statistics above indicate the likelihood of migration is no longer a myth. North Africa is especially vulnerable to desertification (leading to drought) and water scarcity (consequence of flooding and temperature rise). Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of natural hazards in Africa, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) - a study by the two organizations found that natural disasters displaced 59,000 in Algeria (2007).
According to a recent Desktop Study on North Africa, the area will “experience a temperature rise very likely larger than the global mean annual warming”, this in turn will lead to reduced annual rainfall, amplifying aridity and drought. A combination of these factors can trigger migration from rural areas into urban cities, increasing urbanisation whilst straining existing socio-economic conditions. Moreover, urban agriculture is leading the way in terms of clearance of forests, loss of fertile land and polluting groundwater. Agriculture is the primary water consuming sector (with over 70% water consumption attributed to it), there is a high dependency on “climate sensitive agriculture’ and demand for water for irrigation is increasing due to industrial development and urbanisation.
Much of the Sahara, (the largest desert in the world) runs across North Africa, thereby subjecting over 57% of the total land area of the sub-region to desertification. The austere conditions of the Sahara means the majority of the populations live along the Mediterranean coast and the Nile River. This may prove to be little refuge if the Nile floods or sea level rise causes the Mediterranean waters to flood coastal cities leaving disaster in their wake. In early 2010 flooding in the North Sinai, South Sinai, Red Sea and Aswan areas of Egypt saw at least 3,500 people affected, many were left homeless in the flash floods whilst hundreds were displaced (The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent). A similar situation ensued in Tunisia in 2009, whereby flash floods caused some 5,000 people to leave their homes. Furthermore, a study conducted by The German Marshall Fund of the United States (2010), indicated between 1995-2008 Algeria experienced 32 climate related disasters and 25 floods affecting over 45,000 persons, Morocco suffered 19 such disasters and 15 floods affecting over 250,000 people, whilst Tunisia experienced 4 droughts and Sudan 21 (collectively affecting over 2 million). In 2010 the World Bank reported Casablanca in Morocco was “deluged by six months of rain under normal pattern in one night leading to partial shutdown of the city and citizens struggling to reach places of safety”. In 2010 victims of natural disasters (across the world), more than 60 per cent of people reported affected were victims of floods and droughts accounted for 32 per cent of people affected (World Disasters Report). This stresses water and desertification will be key players in intensifying climate change and its consequences for vulnerable populations. With much of the population and economic endeavours located in key flood prone coastal zones, mitigating the effects of flooding is crucial. Climate change is here, and its effects are being felt in many parts of the world, North Africa has not escaped its grips.
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Water stress coupled with desertification, future forecasts do not bode well for North Africa. However, some strides have been in terms of mitigating the impending climate challenges this includes the Plan of Drought in Morocco, the Alexandria Development Project in Egypt, whilst Tunisia has adopted an Eco-Health strategy and Libya and Algeria both have implemented to programmes aimed at sustainable management of resources. Adaptation and a sustainable development approach to climate change in North Africa is a major issue from the perspectives of food production, rural population stabilization, and distribution of water resources.
The States of Egypt, Tunisia and Libya managed to instigate regime change at great cost, it is yet unclear how and whether these will impact environmental and development management strategies. Let us hope a corollary of the Arab Spring is a dynamic green movement capable of giving shape to sustainable agricultural practice and adaptation frameworks. Without creative adaptation and mitigation options the North Africa population is set to face a dire future, critical decisions need to be made now so as to ensure some semblance of security in the coming years. It is vital stakeholders and the public are involved in furnishing a climate strategy to steer the course of national action.
