Tunisia's main political groups have agreed to a timetable for the replacement of the Islamist-led government, a new constitution and elections.
On 5 October, the Tunisian government and the opposition agreed to a timetable for the Islamist-led ruling coalition to resign and be replaced by a technocratic cabinet.
The roadmap, which was brokered by civil society groups led by the General Union of Tunisian Workers (UGTT), sets a timetable of one week after the commencement of a national dialogue process for the appointment of a new independent prime minister. The new prime minister would then have two weeks to form a cabinet, prompting the dissolution of the current coalition led by the Islamist al-Nahda party.
A key component of the roadmap is that the new constitution, currently being drafted by the National Constituent Assembly (NCA), be finalised within four weeks of the commencement of the national dialogue. A timetable for new parliamentary and presidential elections will also be set, to be implemented by the new technocratic government.
The roadmap has the support of the majority of Tunisia's political actors, including major secularist groups Nidaa Tounes and the Popular Front, increasing its likelihood of success. This will reduce sector-specific strike risks (particularly in phosphates mining, energy, and transport) and the risk of politically destabilising protests over the one-month outlook, as long as the national dialogue process begins within two weeks.
Even the emergence of a pro-Islamist labour organisation, the Organisation Tunisienne du Travail (OTT), elements of which the UGTT blamed for attacking its Ariana offices on 7 October, is unlikely to initially pose a direct threat to the roadmap. There are no indications OTT can call on even thousands of supporters, let alone tens of thousands.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
Despite the improving environment, the process remains vulnerable to further disruption from political setbacks. There remain points of disagreement between al-Nahda and the opposition over the details of the electoral timetable and the composition of the Independent Electoral Commission which is likely to oversee the vote.
The main setback capable of derailing the process would be the assassination of another prominent opposition figure or trade union activist. Al-Nahda's removal from government, even by a managed consensual transition, will raise the risks of sporadic violent civil unrest and disruption by hard-line Salafist activists. This unrest, which is unlikely to be publicly sanctioned by party officials, would be most likely to involve small-scale street protests lasting several hours and attacks against trade union offices in the poorer neighbourhoods of Tunis such as Debousville and Ettadhamen.
Exclusive Analysis, recently acquired by IHS (NYSE: IHS) is a specialist intelligence company that forecasts commercially relevant political and violent risks worldwide. They leverage their source network and methodology to produce accurate and actionable forecasts. Their global network of 200 expert analysts and 1,000 sources reports risk-relevant, specialist information to their core London-based team.
