At around 19:30 GMT on the evening of 1 May, reports began filtering in of another suspected terrorist attack in Nigeria's capital, Abuja. The incident occurred within the city's Nyanya district where less than three weeks ago a bombing targeting a crowded bus station killed in excess of 70 people and left scores others wounded.
As was the case with the 14 April attack, the latest incident is likely to have been perpetrated by the Boko Haram Islamist extremist sect. For more than a decade, Boko Haram has waged an armed campaign in Nigeria, aimed at toppling its secular government and transforming Africa's most populous country into an Islamic state governed by Sharia Law. Although the sect predominantly operates in the country's northeast, it has exhibited both the intent and operational capacity to execute attacks across Nigeria, including within its capital.
A forced change?
Although Boko Haram traditionally favoured attacks against state-aligned institutions, such as police stations and detention centres, over the past 12 months, there has been a discernible shift in its modus operandi. Attacks targeting civilian interests have increased markedly, specifically within Nigeria's northeast where reports of civilian massacres have become a near-daily occurrence. This operational transcendence has also been witnessed in the sect's recent operations within the capital. Previous attacks within Abuja targeted highly-fortified facilities such as the city's police headquarters, the offices of the United Nations, or a Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) detention facility. However, the respective 14 April and 1 May attacks were aimed at civilian targets and seemingly orchestrated with the intent of causing maximum casualties.
I had initially postured that Boko Haram's operational shift was forced upon them. In an article published by Think Africa Press on 18 April, I claimed that the sect may have been weakened by counterinsurgency operations launched against its positions in Sambisa Forest, in addition to its logistical networks within the cities of Maiduguri, Kano, Yola and Damaturu. I suggested that the targeting of 'softer' targets may have delineated that the sect had undergone an operational decline and no longer had the capacity to execute attacks against hardened targets with the relative frequency previously witnessed.
Following the Nyanya attack, I find myself questioning my initial assertions. Boko Haram's targeting of civilians in acts of violence which have included mass shootings, bombings and, perhaps most recently, the kidnapping of 234 female students, may well be very deliberate. In adopting this strategy, the sect is undermining the authority and perhaps the very legitimacy of the Nigerian government. With each act of violence perpetrated, disenchantment with the government's handling of the insurgency has increased. As the violence continues unabated, Nigerians are as angry at the Nigerian government for its failure in protecting its citizens as they are at those harming them in the first place. It is fast becoming apparent that there are no heroes or heroines in this deadly war, there are just victims and villains.
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The World Economic Forum a potential target
With Boko Haram successfully undermining faith in President Goodluck Jonathan and his cabinet on the home front, could the sect now be trying to belittle the government in the eyes of the international community? On the 7 May, Abuja will host the World Economic Forum (WEF). Foreign dignitaries attending the event will already be questioning whether their hosts are able to guarantee their safety. Boko Haram will undoubtedly view the symposium as a high-value target, knowing very well that even the most minor of security breaches will likely draw global attention and pose further questions regarding the government's aptitude in handling the insurgency. However, even an incident-free and successful hosting of the WEF summit may be an indictment against the Jonathan government. With the proceedings likely to occur within a climate of tight security, many Nigerians may be left wondering as to why the government is not prioritizing the safety of its own citizenry with same vigour and robustness being afforded to its foreign visitors.
Ryan Cummings is Chief Analyst for Africa for red24, a crisis management assistance company providing advice, support and response within crisis management, travel tracking, product recall, kidnap and ransom and travel security. Follow red24 on twitter @red24security. Follow Ryan @Pol_Sec_Analyst
