An excerpt from the foreword to this year's edition of the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG):
Ten years ago, when the most common opinion was that Africa was a basket case, the first few iterations of the IIAG showed that governance was improving, at continental level and in a majority of countries.
Later, in the face of talk of African lions challenging the now emerged Asian tiger economies, the results led us to counsel for greater afro-realism. When most experts were rejoicing about Africa rising, the Index again challenged accepted wisdom and sounded a note of caution by registering signs of progress stalling in several countries (including some of the best performers) and concerning trends in many dimensions of governance.
Today, current opinion focuses on the potential aftershock of deflating commodities prices and third term challengers to democracy. Once again, our Index results lead us to qualify this analysis. What is striking is that these are not the areas which demand most attention.
The Index clearly reveals that deteriorating trends in Safety & Rule of Law have held back the continent's progress in Overall Governance over the last decade. Whilst a majority of Africa's citizens live in countries which have seen improvements in Participation & Human Rights, Sustainable Economic Opportunity or Human Development, all four components which make up Safety & Rule of Law have deteriorated. Almost half of Africa's 54 countries have recorded their worst score in this category in the last three years. This is holding back the continent's progress and remains the biggest challenge to its future.
Second, no situation is irrevocable, either good or bad. Libya for example has fallen to the bottom rankings of the Index, dropping from the 29th rank in 2006 to 51st at the end of the decade. Meanwhile, ten countries have managed to raise their Overall Governance by +5.0 points or more, with Cote d'Ivoire progressing by +13.1 points. But success and progress both require constant attention. Although South Africa and Ghana still feature in the ten top performers in 2015, they also have registered the tenth and eighth largest deteriorations on the continent over the past decade.
At the same time, we can indeed welcome the fact that 70% of our fellow African citizens live in countries which have registered improvement in Sustainable Economic Opportunity over the past decade. And I am, of course, personally happy to see that the most improved indicator over the decade, out of the 95 covered by the Index, is Digital & IT Infrastructure.
However, we must also pay attention to the fact that 40% of Africans live in a country which has registered deterioration in Electricity Infrastructure since 2006, with 13 countries showing a decline of more than -5.0 points. Over half of Africa's economy has been affected by this issue over the past decade. If ignored this could hold back further progress in Sustainable Economic Opportunity, as well as in Human Development.
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Finally, data on Africa and data on governance have improved, enabling us to strengthen our Index and assessment of governance. Between the first and the tenth IIAGs, the number of indicators has almost doubled, from 58 indicators to 95 indicators. But more investment is required. The enlarged SDGs and challenging Agenda 2063 mean it is vital for the continent to get its measurement systems right and for countries to develop their own abilities to gather and use robust and reliable data, in order to monitor progress and identify relevant priorities.
We are also very happy and proud to be able to include this year, for the first time, Public Attitude Survey data from Afrobarometer. This adds a key element to the conversation - the voice of the African citizens for whom governments must deliver. This also needs to be strengthened.
The slight improvement at Overall Governance of one single point over the decade reflects a positive trend in a majority of countries and for over two-thirds of citizens. But Africa is not a country, and governance cannot be reduced to a single dimension. To focus on one measure would miss the point, and this is what our Index is about. My hope is that it can continue to be a useful tool to strengthen and deepen the progress Africa has already displayed.
Mo Ibrahim is Founder and Chair of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, which publishes the IIAG.
