19 July 2017

Zambians Sound Alarm for Eroding Democracy, Afrobarometer Survey Shows

press release

Accra — In the face of mounting government repression, ordinary Zambians stand by their firm commitment to democratic ideals, reiterate solid support for institutional checks and balances, and strongly reject one-man rule, a new Afrobarometer survey has found.

In results of a nationally representative survey in April, Zambians express worry that their democracy is eroding and political space is closing as President Edgar Lungu's administration has clamped down on dissent.

While popular support for democracy is strong, especially among respondents with higher education, attitudes toward emergency measures are more mixed, reflecting some willingness to accept restrictions on freedoms of the media and of movement.

Survey findings are detailed in Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 157, available at www.afrobarometer.org.

Key findings

- Although Zambians have long been committed to the ideals of democracy, their satisfaction with the way democracy actually works in their country has sunk from a majority 68% in 2012 to a minority 49% in 2017.

- People sense a decline in freedom of speech. The proportion expressing a need to "be careful what they say about politics" has risen by 10 percentage points, from 62% to 72%, between 2012 and 2017.

- Only about one-third (36%) of Zambians feel comfortable offering criticism of President Edgar Lungu.

- Yet most Zambians favour checks on the president's executive powers. More than six in 10 (64%) think the president should be monitored by Parliament, and seven in 10 (71%) say he should always obey the laws and courts.

- More than eight in 10 Zambians (84%) favour a limit of two five-year terms for the presidency.

- Attitudes toward emergency measures are mixed. Zambians oppose governmental violations of the right to privacy (e.g. monitoring phone communications) and the right to political association (e.g. banning organizations). But, at least before the imposition of emergency measures in July 2017, citizens were less robust in defending freedom of the press and freedom of movement.

- Education is the best predictor of popular commitment to democracy in Zambia. Even small amounts of primary or secondary education strengthen an individual's predisposition to defend democracy. To counteract democratic backsliding in Zambia, however, the key opinion leaders are those with post-secondary education.

Afrobarometer

Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues across more than 30 countries in Africa. Six rounds of surveys were implemented between 1999 and 2015. Round 7 surveys (2017/2018) are currently underway; results are released as fieldwork is completed.

Afrobarometer conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent's choice with nationally representative samples of adult citizens. A sample of 1,200 respondents yields country-level results with a margin of sampling error of +/-3% at a 95% confidence level. Previous surveys have been conducted in Zambia in 1999, 2002, 2005, 2009, 2012, and 2014.

See www.afrobarometer.org and Facebook and Twitter @Afrobarometer.

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