28 December 2017

South Africa: Scenario - a Populist South Africa

analysis

In 2018/2019 Cyril Ramaphosa will likely become South Africa's fifth state president. He will be faced with an economic mountain to climb, youth unemployment that's creeping to near 50%, and an impatient population, average age only 27.

The eyes of the world will be on Ramaphosa to see whether he can continue the legacy of the Rainbow nation's icon, Nelson Mandela, who dreamed of a united, prosperous and equal South Africa.

It is in the interests of all South Africans to work together under Ramaphosa's leadership to realise that dream. But, a strident African nationalist populism has metastasized into the African National Congress (ANC). It calls for the "expropriation without compensation" of property and the nationalisation of the South African Reserve Bank. These are now policies of the ANC.

Unless arrested, this leftist policy drift signals a coming collectivist-populist revolution within the two decades, under the guise of "redress for apartheid". Such a collapse of the social contract will fundamentally change South Africa.

While the analysts ponder the first term of a Ramaphosa presidency, I thought to sketch a post-revolution South Africa, so that citizens can decide now, whether that is what we want for our country. Perhaps a peek...

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