Accra, Ghana — Zimbabwe's presidential campaign has done little to allay popular apprehensions about the security of the vote, the counting of ballots, the announcement of election results, and the possibility of post-election violence, according to a new public-opinion survey.
Findings of the nationally representative survey, which the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI) conducted in all 10 provinces of Zimbabwe between 25 June and 6 July 2018, show that while a majority of citizens were optimistic that the election will be free and fair, substantial minorities remained worried about manipulation in the final stages of the electoral process.
These findings largely confirm results of a pre-election baseline survey in April/May but show that as the election approached, citizen apprehensions about military intervention and the potentially violent aftermath of a disputed election were on the rise.
Other findings from the new survey, including a significant drop in President Emmerson Mnangagwa's lead over challenger Nelson Chamisa, are detailed in Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 223, at www.afrobarometer.org.
The Institute for Justice and Reconciliation, Afrobarometer's core partner for Southern Africa, commissioned two pre-election surveys in Zimbabwe.
Fieldwork was conducted by the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI), Afrobarometer's national partner in Zimbabwe.
Technical support was provided by Afrobarometer, a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues in African countries. Afrobarometer conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent's choice with nationally representative samples.
Findings from the first survey, conducted 28 April-13 May 2018, are available at www.afrobarometer.org.
For the second survey, MPOI interviewed 2,400 adult citizens between 25 June and 6 July 2018. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
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