12 March 2019

South Africa: To Coalition or Not to Coalition - That Is the Question, at Least for ANC Gauteng


A recent poll and a series of events in the ANC have suggested that the possibility of the party not being able to win more than 50% of the vote in Gauteng is closer to becoming a reality than ever before. Which, of course, opens the door to what can be a series of endless speculation around the future ruling coalitions for South Africa's richest province.

Last week the Institute for Race Relations' poll (which it stressed is not a prediction but a snapshot of the electorate) showed that the ANC was under 42% in Gauteng. This means that there is an incredible amount of ground to make up for the party if it wants to stay in government there.

Whatever the final result, it is important to determine, before the actual casting of ballots, what some of the dynamics around those choices might be. There appears to be a general presumption that the ANC would immediately call on the EFF to join them in forming a provincial government, which may not necessarily be the case. And if it were that really strange choices are made, there could be a range of longer-term consequences for all involved.

For some voters,...

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