South Africa: Is This the 2019 Election Result? ANC 61 Percent, DA 19 Percent, EFF 11 Percent, IFP 3 Percent and FF+ 1 Percent

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analysis

This is the most likely outcome of the 2019 Election as the election campaign hits its final lap. The Top 5 personalities who will shape the election results are President Cyril Ramaphosa, DA leader Mmusi Maimane, EFF leader Julius Malema, DA Western Cape premier candidate Alan Winde and newcomer party, GOOD, led by Patricia de Lille.

Ipsos has published the outcomes of its final poll ahead of the 8 May election.

If seven in 10 voters turn out, then this (ANC 61%, DA 19%, EFF 11%, IFP 3% and FF+ 1%) is the likely distribution of votes nationally - a voter turnout of about 70% tallies with how South Africans usually vote, says Ipsos director and pollster Mari Harris. In 1999, the voter turnout was 87.92%; in 2004, 75.52%; in 2009, 77.3% and in 2014, 73.4%.

But the official opposition DA says Ipsos undercounts its support and the party says its own figures and feedback from the ground show it can still beat its 2014 outcome when the party won 22.23% of the vote.

Here are the top five personalities who will shape the election results:

ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa

Cyril Ramaphosa illustration: N.D. Mazin 2019

Without Ramaphosa, the ANC...

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