EISA: 'Integrity of election compromised'
"Key aspects of the electoral process, such as security challenges, voter registration, campaigns and selective observer accreditation have compromised the integrity of the elections," said EISA in an interim statement this morning.
EISA reports that of 6955 observers they trained, election commissions illegally refused to accredit 3000. Of those accredited, "some were prevented from observing voting and tabulation in Gaza, Nampula and Zambezia provinces". Attempts at observation were further frustrated because at some polling stations in Zambezia and Nampula, the results sheets (editais) were not posted outside polling stations as required by law.
The refusal to grant credentials to EISA-linked observers made it impossible to carry out planned provincial parallel counts (PVTs, parallel vote tabulations) in Tete and Zambezia.
By moving around observers to fill gaps, EISA was able to carry out a national PVT based on reports from nearly 2500 polling stations (out of 20,590 - a 12% sample), as well as a provincial PVT in Nampula based on reports from 600 polling stations (out of 3486 - a 17% sample).
A PVT is based on the final results as announced at the polling station and posted in the edital, and thus it does not take into account any manipulation during the voting or counting.
EISA argues that "Parliament should consider an inclusive and holistic revision of the electoral legislative" to either harmonise the existing different electoral laws or to create a single electoral code.
"Parliament should consider further reforms to strengthen the institutional framework for electoral administration in order to make provincial and district structures accountable to the CNE," EISA adds. This is a polite way of saying provincial and district elections commissions and STAEs should be stopped from taking instructions from Frelimo instead of CNE.
Frelimo wins 2/3 of parliament
Using the EISA PVT projections it is possible to estimate the number of parliament seats (using a dHondt calculator to properly attribute seats to parties. The estimate is that Frelimo gains 179 seats (giving it a 2/3 majority), Renamo 62, MDM 8, and the Nampula-based party Amusi 1 seat. Renamo won a seat in Gaza so it has members of the AR from all provinces. There is a full table in the attached pdf version of this bulletin.
EISA PVT confirms Frelimo landslide
EISA's initial projections were given to the four presidential candidates and the National Elections Commission and Constitutional Council yesterday, and to the press this morning.
For President, the projections are:
Filipe Nyusi 70.9%, Ussofo Momade 21.4%, David Simango 6.9%, Mario Albino 0.7% of valid votes.
Blank 3.8% and invalid (nulo) 3.0% of total vote.
For parliament (AR) for the 11 provinces, the projections are:
Turnout: 44.5%. Blank 5.6%. Invalid 3.2%.
Frelimo 70.7%, MDM 3.0%, Renamo 24.9%, others 1.4%.
Turnout: 49.8%. Blank 10.3%. Invalid 4.2%.
Frelimo 76.6%, MDM 2.7%, Renamo 18.5%, others 2.2%.
Turnout: 44.7%. Blank 5.2%. Invalid 2.9%.
Frelimo 55.3%, MDM 4.8%, Renamo 36.4%, others 3.5%.
Turnout: 43.2%. Blank 6.4%. Invalid 6.0%.
Frelimo 61.0%, MDM 4.0%, Renamo 33.4%, others 1.6%.
Turnout: 60.4%. Blank 5.4%. Invalid 3.3%.
Frelimo 75.6%, MDM 2.1%, Renamo 20.9%, others 1.5%.
Turnout: 59.7%. Blank 5.6%. Invalid 2.0%.
Frelimo 73.3%, MDM 2.9%, Renamo 22.3%, others 1.5%.
Turnout: 56.6%. Blank 4.0%. Invalid 3.4%.
Frelimo 63.0%, MDM 14.7%, Renamo 20.8%, others 1.5%.
Turnout: 51.3%. Blank 6.4%. Invalid 3.7%.
Frelimo 76.4%, MDM 4.7%, Renamo 14.5%, others 4.4%.
Turnout: 54.6%. Blank 2.7%. Invalid 2.2%.
Frelimo 89.9%, MDM 2.7%, Renamo 5.0%, others 2.4%.
Turnout: 54.0%. Blank 2.9%. Invalid 2.3%.
Frelimo 64.0%, MDM 5.7%, Renamo 27.9%, others 2.5%.
Turnout: 60.4%. Blank 2.1%. Invalid 1.4%.
Frelimo 61.8%, MDM 7.8%, Renamo 27.6%, others 2.7%.
And for the Nampula provincial assembly:
Turnout: 45.5%. Blank 5.5%. Invalid 2.6%.
Frelimo 56.1%, MDM 5.4%, Renamo 36.1%, Amusi 2.5 %.
Districts which barred observers or did not post results sheets
The electoral law requires that the district tabulation is open to observers and that the results sheet (edital) be posted outside immediately after the count. But in at least 17 districts this was not done.
In some places participation was prohibited and no edital was posted:
Macate, Manica: our correspondents were not allowed to participate in the district tabulation, and no edital has been posted. The president of the District Election Commission (CDE) said the editais were taken to the provincial capital, Chimoio, for approval.
Milange, Zambezia: Our correspondents were prevented from participating in the district tabulation, but had access to the results. However the edital was not posted.
The edital was not posted anywhere in public in:
Our correspondents questioned the District Elections Commission (CDE) staff who said editais were not posted by the CDE but only by the Government. The edital had not been posted by this morning.
Angonia, Tete: No editais were posted due to the absence of the chairman of the CDE.
Inhassoro, Inhambane: The CDE did not post, did not explain, and refused to provide copies to observers.
Limpopo, Gaza: No edital posted.
Claimed they could not post the editias for alleged printer problems. And they also said they had problems with some numbers during the count, which they were still trying to solve.
Matola, Maputo Province: No edital due to "unforeseen events".
Memba, Nampula: district results have not yet been reported because the STAE director has not yet authorized them, our correspondents report.
Across Zambezia, results were publicly announced but never posted.
CDE president Fabiao Cote called observers and journalists on Monday afternoon (October 21) to deliver copies of district tabulation announcements. No notice was posted on the CDE building. Asked by correspondents in this Bulletin, Cote declined to explain the reasons for not posting the editais as required by law. "Anyone who is interested has received their copy," said Fabiao.
Results have been announced but the edital has not yet been posted. The chairman of the District Committee said that Renamo did not participate in the tabulation and did not sign the minutes.
Elsewhere in Zambezia results were announced but not posted in Morrumbala, Pebane, Molumbo, Gurue, Inhassunge and Mocuba.
According to article 107 of Law 2/2019 of 31 May, the results of district or city tabulation are announced in solemn and public act by the President of the respective District or City Election Commission, within a maximum of three days (…) and affixed to the original door of the building where the District or City Election Commission is located, the district and municipal government building are affixed to the original notice.