Nigeria: CBN Report - Nigeria Recorded $10.89bn Forex Inflow in October

21 November 2019

The aggregate foreign exchange (forex) inflow into the Nigerian economy amounted to $10.89 billion in October, according to data from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The amount, according to the central bank's economic report for October obtained yesterday, showed a decline of 0.9 per cent below the level at the end of the preceding month.

It, however, was an increase of 48.4 per cent relative to the level at the end of the corresponding period last year.

The report attributed the marginal decline to the 1.1 per cent and 0.7 per cent fall in inflow through the bank and autonomous sources respectively.

On the other hand, it stated that aggregate foreign exchange outflow from the economy, at $5.14 billion, fell by 10.3 per cent and 1.9 per cent, below the levels in the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2018 respectively.

The development was attributed mainly to the 12.1 per cent decline in outflow through the bank.

"Accordingly, foreign exchange flows through the economy, resulted in a net inflow of $5.75 billion in the review period, compared with $5.25 billion and $2.10 billion at end-September 2019 and end-October 2018, respectively," it explained.

The report showed that aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the CBN, at $4.10 billion, declined by 1.1 per cent, below the level in the preceding month.

It, however, showed an increase of 44.1 per cent over the level at the end of the corresponding period of 2018.

According to the monthly report, the fall in aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the CBN, relative to the preceding month's level, was attributed, largely, to the fall in oil receipts.

"Aggregate outflow of foreign exchange from the bank fell by 12.1 per cent and 3.2 per cent to $4.77 billion, below the levels at the end of the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively. "The development, relative to the preceding month's level, was attributed, mainly, to 0.5 per cent and 13.0 per cent decline in interbank utilisation and other official payments, respectively.

"Overall, foreign exchange flows, through the bank at the end of October 2019, resulted in a net outflow of $0.67 billion, compared with a net outflow of $1.27 billion and $2.08 billion in the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively," it stated.

The report showed that CBN has continued to intervene in the forex market to further sustain improved liquidity and relative stability in the market.

Owing to this, it sold a cumulative sum of $2.79 billion to authorised dealers in October, compared with $2.80 billion supplied in September. This indicated a decline of 0.5 per cent and 16.3 per cent relative to the levels in the preceding month and the end of the corresponding period of 2018, respectively.

A breakdown of the central bank's forex intervention showed that interbank sales fell by 2.8 per cent to $0.10 billion, in contrast to the increase of 5.8 per cent in the preceding month.

But, Bureau De Change (BDC) sales and swaps transactions, however, rose by one per cent and 27.9 per cent to $1.07 billion and $0.03 billion, above the preceding month's levels of $1.06 billion and $0.02 billion, respectively.

In addition, the report said Nigeria's crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids, was estimated at 1.93 million barrels per day (mbd) or 59.83 mb in the review month. This, it stated, represented a marginal decline of 0.02 mbd or 1.0 per cent, compared with 1.95 mbd produced in the preceding month.

Also, crude oil export was estimated at 1.48 mbd or 45.88 mb, representing an increase of 1.4 per cent, compared with 1.46 mbd recorded in the preceding month.

"The allocation of crude oil for domestic consumption was 0.45 mbd or 13.95 mb in the review month. The average spot price of Nigeria's reference crude oil, the Bonny Light (37° API) at end-October 2019, decreased to $61.10/b, compared with $65.28/b recorded in September 2019.

"This represented a decline of 6.4 per cent relative to the level in the preceding month. The fall in crude oil price was due, largely, to low demand for crude oil, as fallout of the trade war between the US and China.

"The UK Brent, at $60.33/b and the Forcados, at $61.42/b, and the WTI, at $54.72/b, exhibited similar trend as the Bonny Light.

"The average OPEC basket of 15 selected crude streams was US$59.93/b in October 2019. This showed a decrease of 3.9 per cent and 24.5 per cent below the levels recorded in the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2018," it added.

It also showed that at N894.09 billion, the estimated federally-collected revenue (gross) in October 2019 fell below both the monthly budget estimate of N1.246 trillion and the preceding month's receipt by 28.2 per cent and 0.9 per cent, respectively.

The decline, relative to the monthly budget estimate, was attributed to shortfall in both oil and non-oil revenue.

"Oil receipts, at N577.30 billion or 64.6 per cent of total revenue, was below the monthly budget estimate of N798.83 billion by 27.7 per cent.

"However, it exceeded the receipt of N467.58 billion in the preceding month by 23.5 per cent. The decrease in oil revenue relative to the monthly budget estimate was attributed to shut-ins and shut-downs at some NNPC terminals due to pipeline leakages and maintenance activities.

"Similarly, at N316.79 billion or 35.4 per cent of total revenue, non-oil receipt was below the monthly budget estimate of N447.24 billion and the preceding month's earning of N434.52 billion by 29.2 per cent and 27.1 per cent, respectively," it added.

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