The epidemic won't disappear by 17 April. We have merely bought three weeks breathing space to plan for the future
Those of us trying to model the Covid-19 pandemic should try to be humble; there is more we don't know than we do. Anyone who claims to know what the infection or mortality rates are for this disease is either deluded or dishonest. But, with time-tested scientific analysis, some things are predictable: on 17 April, after three weeks of lockdown, the sun will rise in Cape Town at 7:10am, and we will still be at the start of a Covid-19 outbreak.
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