Researchers in the UK have extrapolated Covid-19 data, mainly from the Wuhan experience, to make predictions about death rates which highlight the urgency of implementing aggressive suppression measures to drastically reduce physical contact and also the rollout of extensive tracking and testing.
Researchers from the Imperial College in the United Kingdom have predicted that nearly four million South Africans could be infected and more than 15,000 could die from the coronavirus in what they stated was their "best-case" scenario (See the full report here).
Imperial College COVID19 Global Impact
But South African-based scientists have cautioned that the projection, in the college's report last week, "The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression", should be "taken with a pinch of salt" as it does not use South Africa-specific data but mostly that of the Chinese city of Wuhan where the pandemic erupted in December.
Several South African scientists are reported to be busy calculating more localised projections for the country, perhaps as early as this week, that will take into consideration more of the unique local dynamics.
The UK report by the college's Covid-19 Response Team takes a broad-spectrum approach, projecting the impact of the pandemic on 202...