Mauritius: COVID-19 - La MCB estime la baisse des revenus du tourisme à Rs 40 milliards

«Comme mentionné dans les précédentes éditions, le secteur du tourisme prendra un coup significatif avec le Covid-19.» La MCB, dans sa troisième édition de son «Weekly Economic Watch» dans le contexte de la pandémie, publiée jeudi 30 avril, attire principalement l'attention sur ce secteur d'activité.

Le groupe bancaire estime à Rs 40 milliards la baisse de revenus dans le tourisme. Sa reprise dépendra de l'interaction entre plusieurs facteurs, dont les ramifications des mesures de confinement ici et dans le monde, les restrictions de voyage et la détérioration de la santé des compagnies aériennes ainsi que le déclin de revenus de nos marchés, des touristes étrangers souffrant de baisse de salaire ou de perte d'emploi.

"The actual outcome would eventually depend on how the afore-mentioned factors evolve over time and the effectiveness of measures put in place locally and abroad to support economic activities. The following assumptions are made to estimate the potential loss in tourism earnings and determine the possible shape of recovery in the tourism sector:

- The pandemic fades in the second half of the year on the worldwide scale and containment efforts are gradually unwound, with international travel restrictions lifted only in late Q3 2020

- A modest pick-up in arrivals is foreseen as from Q4 2020, with a return to pre-pandemic levels not to be observed before Q4 2021 based on projections of international tourist arrivals and views by local operators

- Despite benefitting from a weaker rupee, some hotels are expected to cut prices more than proportionately in the face of lower demand, with the average tourist also reducing its spending", anticipe le rapport.

Il prévoit que le tourisme sera le secteur qui tardera le plus à se remettre, comme l'indique le schema ci-dessous :

Par ailleurs, les craintes de la MCB se portent également sur la perte de valeur de la roupie, le taux de change et le marché boursier, même si l'inflation sera contenue.

En conclusion, la MCB souhaite un 'stimulus plan' de la part du gouvernement pour aider à la reprise économique mais dans le cadre d'une discipline fiscale stricte. "Besides offering immediate relief to industries and reliable safety nets to vulnerable sections of society, it would, beyond the short run, be imperative for Mauritius to promptly implement a broad-based, targeted and time-bound stimulus plan to help shore up its economic recovery as it emerges from the pandemic, alongside laying favourable grounds to, in due course, further transform the nationwide economic paradigm as well as promote high and inclusive GDP growth. (... )

Essentially, though it remains quite hard to think ahead of the COVID-19 pandemic, the challenge for us - beyond strengthening resilience against health risks - is to help sectors regain their productive capabilities, incentivise employers to retain and recruit people, and stimulate consumption and investment. Towards those ends, a major prerequisite is to undertake a dispassionate and wholesome appraisal of the nature and extent of economic hardships faced by businesses and households with a view to coming up with an optimal mix of monetary, fiscal and structural policies. In turn, to execute the stimulus plan in an opportune and comprehensive manner, an important consideration is the careful prospection of suitable sources of funding, on both the local and international fronts.

On this note, whereas it is understandable that our fiscal and debt indicators would, in line with global trends, be adversely impacted as we deal with socio-economic challenges, a key success factor for the stimulus plan to work out is to exercise strict discipline over earmarked outlays and related beneficiaries. (... ) In addition to that, the national stimulus plan should manage to yield robust and long-lasting benefits if backed by the following: (i) formulation of a clear roadmap of initiatives, backed by welldefined milestones; (ii) establishment of effective coordination across different layers of policy making; and (iii) strengthening of institutional ownership and accountability.

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