Mozambique: The War in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado - Four Scenarios That Will Potentially Materialise


With the conflict in northern Mozambique showing no signs of stopping, the question is, where is Cabo Delgado province heading? Based on the multiple reasons behind the conflict, and considering the increasing international political and economic interests in Cabo Delgado and how conflicts have been managed in post-independence Mozambique, four scenarios are conceivable.

It has been three years since the beginning of the Islamic insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado in Mozambique. So far, the conflict is said to have claimed more than 2,000 lives; more than 300,000 internal refugees have been recorded and a significant number of properties have been destroyed by Ansar al-Sunna (AaS), an allegedly Islamic State affiliate fighting Mozambique's military forces to establish a local Islamic state.

AaS's violent activities in the gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado started in October 2017, targeting local police stations and villages. By May 2018 the attacks had reached horrendous proportions. Before turning violent, AaS members had begun to preach a radical form of Islam and to build their own mosques. Later, the group started opposing Western-style institutions, such as the rule of law, sending children to regular schools, individual liberties, the power of state representatives, and mutual tolerance...

AllAfrica publishes around 800 reports a day from more than 100 news organizations and over 500 other institutions and individuals, representing a diversity of positions on every topic. We publish news and views ranging from vigorous opponents of governments to government publications and spokespersons. Publishers named above each report are responsible for their own content, which AllAfrica does not have the legal right to edit or correct.

Articles and commentaries that identify as the publisher are produced or commissioned by AllAfrica. To address comments or complaints, please Contact us.