Tunis/Tunisia — Tunisia's real GDP growth (at market prices) is expected to bounce back to 4% in 2021 following a historical 8% drop in 2020, the World Bank revealed in its Global Economic Prospects flagship report, released on Tuesday.
However, the WB expects this real GDP growth to drop to 2.6% and 2.2% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
"Most economies in the MENA region experienced their sharpest contractions in decades in 2020, and the economic damage done by the pandemic remains particularly evident in the transport and tourism sectors," the WB specified.
Output in the MENA region is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2021, stronger than initially forecast, but below the previous decade average--ending 2019. The region should benefit from the recent rebound in oil prices, stronger external demand, and less economic disruptions from COVID-19 outbreaks, the WB said.
"As vaccinations rise, mobility restrictions ease, oil production cuts taper, and damage to balance sheets reverse, growth should accelerate further to 3.5% in 2022," the report reads.
However, the outlook is uncertain and depends on the course of the pandemic and vaccination availability and take-up, the WB warned.
The WB further listed risks tilted to the downside and are related to the possibility of resurgence of COVID-19 cases, delays in vaccination rollout, weaker oil prices in the context of limited economic diversification, higher agricultural prices and food insecurity, and conflict and social unrest.