South Africa: ANC en Route to December 2022 - How the Votes Are Stacking Up

opinion

The political coordinates that will determine the results of the 2022 ANC elective conference are bound to change many times in the next 18 months. Yet, it is worth doing a baseline mapping of the lay of the land, given a batch of unfolding developments.

The formula for the election of the ANC's national leadership has been adapted minimally from Mahikeng in 1997 to Nasrec in 2017. There are a number of "boxes" that carry the voting delegates - and the spaces have to be filled. We are currently accumulating hints as to how this may happen. The boxes include the number of branches in good standing (determined largely by membership numbers), how these branches translate their numbers through provincial leadership structures, the Women's, Youth and Veterans' leagues, the Provincial Executive Committees (PECs), and the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC. The number of voting delegates at ANC elective conferences has generally been just over 4,000 - counting the valid votes, after disqualifications.

Both the Mangaung and Nasrec conferences suffered disqualifications through courts overruling underhanded branch and provincial structure practices. As a result, recourse to the courts and court action have become de facto co-determinants of the ANC election...

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