Nigeria: Why Nigeria's GDP Would Surpass IMF Projection - Afrinvest

24 January 2022

Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa) Limited, a Lagos based investment banking firm, have projected that in 2022, Nigerian economy would surpass the prediction by the International Monetary Fund, IMF by 0.2 percentage points despite the Gross Domestic Product, GDP, dynamics in 2021.

The firm predicted that Nigerian economy would grow by 2.9 per cent while the IMF predicted 2.7 per cent in 2022.

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The analysts explained: "Nigerian economy would be driven by continued recovery in non-oil GDP. For the oil sector GDP, we expect the gradual increase in Nigeria's oil production towards the new cap of 1.83mbpd from the earlier 1.45mbpd, to boost the sector's performance.

2022 being a pre-election year, we anticipate a marked shift in fiscal focus to politicking.

"Despite the anticipated electioneering pressures, fiscal policy is expected to become more hawkish as the government seeks to raise revenue generation to fund a N17.1 trillion budget with a planned deficit of N6.4 trillion."

On recommendations, they stated: "The monetary policy environment should remain relatively accommodative. We do not expect any switch in the current Foreign Exchange, FX management policy of the CBN."

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