Paul Obi urges the major opposition party to reset the nation by taking the right decision
"The choice in politics is not between good and evil, but between the preferable and the detestable"
- Raymond Aron
In today's world, Nigeria is paying a heavy price for nepotism and religious bigotry - the nation's most deadly monsters. Close observers believe - tribe and religion have been more deadly to Nigeria than even the ills of sleaze and graft. In 2015, the combined forces of tribal gangs, laureates crowned with Swedish ropes, intellectuals, singers nay poet, footballers (remember Victor Ikpeba's NEPA bill) - they're even gathering again at Bourdillon, and the insane Ojota orchestra hoodwinked the people to enthrone a disaster already foretold. It took not even a month, but in faraway America, for the Bigot-in-Chief to unveil his pandora box of 95% vs 5%. Added with being quintessentially clueless and the ruling phantom political party, All Progressives Congress (APC), Nigeria was throttled to a Golgotha and an unimaginable national crisis in history.
Therefore, 2023 is the year to end APC's ravaging machine in Nigeria and reset it from a predatory state to a mundane one. Or risk the consequences of irredeemable collapse. Worst still, PDP has wasted so much time and energy in bickering over zoning and power contest. Rather than craft a narrative and dwell on shared power model, the party allowed prospective aspirants to embark on a wrong-headed fishing expedition to undo one another, pitching the South against the North. And even aspirants gaming each other as the Northern consensus fiasco has proven. Further afield, PDP is still operating as a party of press statements; lacking the intellectual wing and economic think-tank to confront APC headlong. The best strategy: PDP would have sat down on a table and allocated all the positions - President, Vice President, Senate President, Speaker, Secretary of the Government of the Federation (SGF), Chief of Staff (COA) among the six geopolitical zones as previously done to avoid this current uncertainty and fluidity. The lack of such foresight has left a toll on the party and exacerbated existing hiccups within its ranks.
Despite these daunting hiccups, PDP still has a chance - that chance lies squarely on the choice of its presidential candidate in the 2023 presidential run. And given that the most important aspect of electoral democracy dwells on the ability of voters to punish and reprimand a non-performing party. A billion, trillion and gazillion whips await APC at the 2023 polls. David Schultz termed such power as the contentious rights of choice. Therefore, the only leeway for APC is to engage in self-help - jackboot or gun-toting democracy, the type that was staged in Kogi State governorship race. But there's every assurance that voters would reject such attempts.
So who are the PDP's top guns that are capable of up staging APC? In whatever calculation the party engages in, the mood of the nation, Nigerians and voters alike should be the guiding light that should influence PDP's choice of a presidential candidate. The presidential primaries should never be reduced to the dictates of buying and selling - or a pseudo-democratic ritual for the highest bidder. The party should also not be brow-beaten to submit itself to fraudulent narratives by candidates about their ability to win or electoral strength. There's need for clarity and appropriate interrogation of the aspirants and their practical path to victory. Not boastful tales.
In what way are the aspirants measured? Is it an Aminu Tambuwal with institutional experience, a unifier and bridge-builder? A Peter Obi with sound campaign agenda to move Nigeria from consumption to production, sincerity of purpose amidst a supportive national frenzy of his candidature and what Dr Sam Amadi termed Obi's sole ownership as "the barometer to measure the malfunction of the Nigerian state and the oracle that points the way to reconstructing the macroeconomics of its survival"? An Nyesome Wike, a pillar of the party without whom PDP would have kissed death? An Atiku Abubakar with foundational knowledge and vast national network? A Bukola Saraki with the best presidential appeal, gusto and credentials despite what Sam Omatseye said of his convoluted geo-ethnic origin and crisis of political identity' - the man who is seen as a northerner when he is in the south and a southerner when he is in the North... ? Or is it an experienced statesman and articulated Pius Anyim Pius? Will it be a technocrat - business savvy Sam Ohuabunwa who could be the centre of gravity enroute 2023 presidential race?
Again, given the prevalence of identity politics in Nigeria, how do the aspirants fare based on their geo-political spread? Is it a Tambuwal with the North West astronomical voting strength or Nigeria's votes haven? Does the magic wand practically dwell with Obi - Okute Ndigbo who has an unprecedented national support base that has been likened to MKO Abiola's Choice 93 and seen as the most altruistic aspirant with a dependable track records to save Nigeria from this present monumental chaos and crisis? Will the party beckon on Atiku's more than three decades political machine for a victory, though he shockingly could not deliver his North East geopolitical zone in 2019 polls even when he was running with a presidential candidate from a different zone? Will it be a Saraki with vast civil society networking? Or an Anyim with deep political establishment? Will PDP's 2023 possible victory comes down to Ohuabunwa's business class base and connection to Nigerian Yatch-swelling plutocrats? The race glaringly has now been zeroed on personalities' track records; policy and issues and most critical of them all, the mood of the nation.
What then are the issues and what is the mood of the nation that a PDP's candidate must navigate through in order to sail to victory in 2023? By 2015, the Nigerian economy was one of the fastest growing one: our currency, the Naira was N150 to a dollar; Boko Haram's terrorism was consigned to North East; the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS), Marginal Propensity to Invest (MPI) and Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) were all favourable. Nigeria's place in the international community was crucial and adored. But with Buhari and APC, a debauchery was carried out on the economy and currency. Imported terrorists took siege of the country. Nepotism became a centrifugal state policy - redefining democracy as government of Daura, for Daura and by Daura.
So the most obvious mood of the nation and how to rescue Nigeria, first, is to ensure that a repeat of tribalism and bigotry are all avoided. Those who share in President Buhari's ideological priming of nepotism and bigotry - the clannish political coefficient of 95% vs 5% as statecraft should never be allowed to come close to Nigeria's oval office and seat of power. Instead, there should be institutional and democratic safeguards to prevent them. Political parties' primaries should be one of them. The implication is that Nigeria presently needs a unifier and bridge-builder, not a Bigot-in-Chief.
Another mood and poser by Nigerian voters is: is the economy stupid? The next Nigerian president must be one who is conversant with the dynamics of retooling a crumbling economy, create jobs, return citizens to production paths instead of political jobbing, racketeering, yahoo yahoo, Kpekus economy. One who will bring back industries to live after years of sojourning in Siberia. The other mood involves issues of equity, justice and fairness; a fair deal for all, not clientele politics of share the money or barons and guests of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). Instructively, what will PDP do about the massive voting fields of North West? How does the party handle the topical issue of equity and justice for the people of South East who deservedly has a case for a shot for the 2023 Presidency? How about the South-South, golden layer of eggs and petrol dollars? Or the neglected North East? More strategically, what will be the best intervention from the military oligarchs - the invisible hands or owners of Nigeria given that they are at their prime - but some even nearing the departure lounge? What last legacy do they intend to bequeath, is it equity and justice; consolidated power, or concentrated oligarchies or a workable Nigeria for all? Answers to the above questions would unravel the mood of the nation.
Thus, as the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) and National Working (NWC), Board of Trustees (BOT) and the delegates reflect on the would-be presidential candidate, Nigerians are looking up to PDP for a rescue. A rescue from APC's criminal incompetence. The path to dethrone APC now looks rough, though possible. The confusion that greeted the narrative and debates have left an infectious and injurious cut on the party. It is not only the presidential primaries that would affect the PDP? States' gubernatorial races would determine PDP's fortunes in 2023. For instance in a state like Benue, what will the National Chairman of PDP, Dr Iyorchia Ayu and the state governor, Samuel Ortom do with the naked display of injustice against the Idoma people? Will Ayu and Ortom watch by and allow the Tivs to become Governor after holding forth since the creation of that state? How will the impact affect the PDP? Will PDP concentrate only on presidential election and ignore the chances of controlling both the Senate and House of Representatives?
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Whichever way PDP unravels the puzzles, the battle to unseat APC is tenuous and tough. It is one that places the PDP to choose between a crown and a coffin. Both the crown and coffin of PDP would be laid at the party's primaries for the election of its presidential candidate and standard bearer. It will be the sole duty of the delegates to choose between a crown and a coffin. If the party through pay-to-play, neo-feudalism and neo-patrimony agents allow the mood of the nation to be ditched or disrupted by the choice of its presidential candidate - not wanted by the electorate, that will be the end of PDP. It is a critical choice and a decision point which will leave a chunk of effect on a nation on a slippery path. As French philosopher, Raymond Aron posited above, the political battle ahead is not between good and evil; it's about the preferable against the detestable (unwanted). Therefore, the most testable and searing blueprint and guidepost for a 2023 victory is electoral strength, voters' preferable candidate and unity. PDP must read and heed the mood of the nation right.
Obi is a journalist, researcher and Fellow at the Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts interested in media, elections and democracy
