A slew of data this week backs the case that South Africa's economy contracted in the second quarter (Q2) and is probably sliding into recession. Spoiler alert: Stage 6 load shedding ain't helping.

After posting surprisingly strong quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.9% in Q1 of this year - those heady days when load shedding remained below Stage 6 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine was only starting - South Africa's economy is falling back into a pit latrine.

A slew of data this week backs a growing consensus that the economy contracted in Q2. Given its stuttering start this quarter - thanks to Stage 6 load shedding and mounting concerns about fading economic growth globally - it seems that only a miracle could avert another contraction this quarter.

And two consecutive quarters of economic contraction add up to a recession.

Manufacturing output declined 2.3% year on year in May, Statistics South Africa said on Tuesday. This followed a 7.6% slide in April, which was partly a reflection of the KZN floods. On a month-on-month basis, the fall in output was 0.2%, but that was off a low base after April's carnage.

"The high-frequency production data currently show a material quarterly contraction in...