On the eve of Angola's election, analysts say that if the vote were free and fair, the ruling MPLA would almost certainly lose to the combined opposition -- but that's not going to happen.

Angola's embattled opposition is widely expected to mount its biggest challenge yet to the ruling MPLA in the general election on Wednesday, 24 August. The poll is likely to be close and some analysts believe the opposition would win if it were a free and fair election.

But none believes the election will in fact be free and fair. So expect the partisan national election commission (CNE) to announce yet another MPLA victory in the days ahead.

President João Lourenço and his MPLA will confront their old foe Unita in the legislative elections, which will also decide if Lourenço gets a second term as president.

In effect, though, the MPLA will be competing with the United Patriotic Front (FPU), which comprises three parties: Unita, the Democratic Bloc (BD) and the Angolan Renaissance Party -- Together for Angola (PRA-JA Servir Angola).

But because the constitutional court -- also partisan -- prevented the three parties from forming a coalition and refused to register Abel Chivukuvuku's PRA-JA, the other...