Water. Too much, or not enough... In South Sudan in 2021, flooding from Nile tributaries has followed a long dry spell, while Somalia continues to suffer from recurrent water shortages. In Algeria, Egypt and Libya, sandstorms have become more numerous and of greater magnitude, spreading to the cities, and even leading to the closure of some ports and airports.
On the other hand, in the Gulf of Guinea, floods are multiplying and bringing destruction, as in Nigeria, which has been particularly hard hit this year. On the southern cone of the continent, the scarcity of water resources due to persistent droughts is endangering the water supply of cities, such as Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe. Along the coast, rising sea levels are threatening infrastructure, a trend that is amplified by the cyclones that are increasingly hitting countries that are on the Indian Ocean, Madagascar and Mozambique in particular.
It is well known that Africa, although it contributes only about 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, could pay the heaviest price for the global acceleration of climate change. What is less well known is the growing impact of climate change on urban areas, which are already under pressure, especially demographically: no less than 70% of African cities are highly vulnerable to climate shocks... yet they are also the economic epicenters of the continent. And they are still growing.
Of the 100 fastest growing cities in the world, the majority of those designated as facing an "extremely high risk" are in Africa.
Climate change: a particularly pronounced threat to Africa's largest cities
Source: Verisk Maplecroft Climate Change Vulnerability Index ©Verisk Maplecroft, 2021.
Of all the extreme climate risks that threaten African cities, flooding is among the most significant. Floods cause significant material damage and affect the most vulnerable populations in informal settlements, which are numerous in African cities that have grown too fast, and are often built on areas at risk, along rivers or on hillsides exposed to landslides.
Most of the continent's megacities are located on the coasts. Africa is also highly exposed to rising sea levels. The Nile Delta in Egypt and island nations such as the Seychelles are on the front lines, as are important coastal cities such as Saint-Louis (Senegal), Lomé (Togo), and Lagos (Nigeria), a rapidly expanding megalopolis bordered by lagoons.
Finally, a quarter of African cities are exposed to a high risk of drought, although this does not hinder their growth. Between 2000 and 2030, the African urban population living in arid zones has tripled in southern Africa and quadrupled in North Africa; in the intertropical zone, it has multiplied by 8.
And it is a vicious circle: drought episodes are expected also to multiply in the countryside, feeding the rural exodus, which typically swells informal settlements on the outskirts of urban centers.
Impacts of climate change on African cities
Source: African Development Bank, 2021.
Let's go back to the characteristics of African cities, which are, above all and contrary to popular belief, abundant with opportunities: they have much more to offer in terms of economic, educational, basic services and health opportunities than rural areas. In addition they accelerate the demographic transition - it is clear that city dwellers tend to have fewer children than their rural counterparts, as highlighted by recent studies summarized in Africa's Urbanisation Dynamics 2022: The Economic Power of Africa's Cities, (OECD/UN ECA/AfDB - 2022)
The other side of the coin is that African cities are capturing the rural exodus and growing at a rapid pace, albeit without the time or resources to anticipate and plan their expansion. This is true for megacities, but also for small and medium-sized cities in Africa (less than 300,000 inhabitants): these are expected to accommodate more than 70% of new city dwellers in the coming decades. However, they have much less investment and management capacity than capital cities. And while population concentration can be a source of wealth, it can also be a source of vulnerability, particularly in informal settlements.
African cities are therefore facing a double challenge: their efforts to provide basic services and jobs to a growing population in economies where the informal sector is most often dominant, are coming up against climatic shocks that are set to increase. These shocks are also causing water scarcity and damage to existing infrastructure.
African governments are now fully aware of the strategic importance of cities in responding to climate change. A study entitled Urban Development and the African NDCs: From national commitments to City Climate Action, commissioned by the African Development Bank and conducted by the University of Southern Denmark, looks specifically at the place of cities in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that 54 African countries have submitted under the Paris Agreement. It shows that 49 countries now include urban issues in their NDCs, compared to 41 in 2016. While some of them are presenting strategies to reduce their carbon emissions (in energy production, waste treatment and transport, in particular), it is the issue of adaptation that is being highlighted. In this respect, water supply, the construction of resilient infrastructure and the protection of coastal areas are the most frequently mentioned.
Reference to the urban component in the NDCs of African countries
The African Development Bank is involved in driving research on the subject.
On the occasion of COP27, the Bank published a report, Financing Low Carbon and Resilient Cities in Africa, a synthesis of a series of studies that opens up strategic avenues. Better planning of urban expansion and the construction of infrastructure adapted to climate change are identified as two levers with strong transformative potential. In fact, taking climate risks into account in investments can even be an opportunity to build real global urban strategies, in which local communities participate and which strengthen social inclusion. The city must be thought of as a whole and understood in all its interdependencies.
However, the lack of local financial resources remains one of the main obstacles. Cities need to develop their own sources of revenue, and governments need to accelerate fiscal decentralization and support its technical implementation to prepare local governments to manage such budgets.
Filling this investment gap - at least in part - is precisely the role of an institution like the African Development Bank, which has made climate change adaptation one of the cornerstones of its policy. This is evidenced by the adoption in 2021 of its Strategic Framework on Climate Change and Green Growth, which commits the Bank to ensuring that every piece of infrastructure it finances is designed with climate change issues in mind.
More fundamentally, the Bank is changing its approach to cities: it no longer finances projects piecemeal, each in its own specific sector, but now considers the urban environment in a comprehensive way and, above all, to work upstream on issues of urban planning, governance and financial management - again by integrating the climate variable.
To this end, the Urban and Municipal Development Fund, which the Bank established in 2019, provides African municipalities with the strategic and technical support they often lack to assess climate risk and fully integrate this component into their action plans. The financing of the development plan for the Sheger River, which crosses Addis Ababa, by the Urban and Municipal Development Fund for preparatory studies, is a good example. A plan to protect an area against a climate hazard (in this case, floods) can become an integrated development project, serving the quality of life of urban populations (click here to read more).
This year, new municipalities have come knocking on the door of the Urban and Municipal Development Fund to benefit from its support program, with the result that they have strengthened their climate preparedness as a first priority. For example, Kanifing in Gambia, which is exposed to coastal erosion, or Djibouti city, which is particularly vulnerable to flooding, will be the focus of action plans developed in 2023. Here too, the Fund intends to favour a comprehensive approach linking resilience, economic opportunities and social inclusion.
The African Development Bank is introduce some of its findings at COP27, during a roundtable organized with the World Bank and other MDBs on Wednesday 16 November, at 1pm Egyptian time (11am GMT). The event, entitled "Uniting to tackle climate change: MDBs, Cities and climate action in Africa", will be held at the MDB Pavilion (streaming link).
The African Development Bank is organizing another roundtable the following day, Thursday, November 17, entitled "Climate-proof Infrastructure, Solutions for low-carbon and resilient development in Africa," from 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. EGY time (7:30 a.m. - 9:30 a.m. GMT), at the Africa Pavilion.
