It would be the ninth consecutive hike since November 2021, adding a cumulative 400 basis points since then and taking the repo rate to 7.50% and the prime lending rate to 11.0%.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points when it concludes its three-day meeting on Thursday, 30 March.

A Reuters poll published on 20 March forecast the MPC would increase its key repo rate by 25 basis points and then take its finger off the trigger on expectations that inflation will slow in the face of an economy battered by power shortages.

It would be the ninth consecutive hike since November 2021, adding a cumulative 400 basis points since then and taking the repo rate to 7.50% and the prime lending rate to 11.0%.

But the SA Reserve Bank -- not for the first time -- finds itself between a rock and a hard place. A bigger-than-expected hike is not inconceivable, and this may not be the end of the tightening cycle.

The rand's performance this year will certainly be in focus. When the MPC last met to deliberate on rates in late January, the rand was trading at around 17.13 to the dollar. It has since lost ground, to above 18.50/dollar. On 23 March, it firmed back below 18.20/dollar. That rally partly reflected...