New tractor sales, a key indicator of the financial health of the agricultural sector, have been slowing in South Africa after scaling 40-year highs last year. An El Niño weather pattern, the power crisis and other factors are undermining sales, though combine harvesters are bucking this trend as big farmers reap a large 2023 harvest.

New tractor sales in South Africa fell by almost 13% in May compared with the same month last year, with 655 units sold, according to the South African Agricultural Machinery Association (Saama). In the year to date, sales are down 5.5% to 3,125.

"Tractor sales, particularly of smaller to mid-range units, have slowed in recent months. Farmers are showing caution, with more factors affecting their decision-making," Saama said in a statement.

"In addition to crop yields and quality, commodity prices and rand exchange rates, El Niño and load shedding now need to be taken into consideration when making buying decisions. Forecasts for tractor sales for the 2023 calendar year are now that they will be between 10 and 15% down on last year."

South African agriculture has just had four consecutive seasons of generally good harvests as a consequence of a prolonged La Niña weather pattern, a cooling of the surface waters of the eastern Pacific that brings good rains to this region.

One upshot of this has been brisk sales of new tractors as commercial farmers invested in their business from the profits reaped. Last year 9,181 new tractors were sold in South Africa, 17% more than in 2021...