Abuja and United Nations — As Russia paused the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres reacted with regret saying the global south would be badly affected.
A Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, on Monday, July 18, said the agreement was "suspended."
"As soon as the Russian part is fulfilled, the Russian side will immediately return to the implementation of that deal," Peskov said.
The Russian Federation's decision to terminate the Black Sea Grain Initiative will "strike a blow to people in need everywhere," Guterres said in reaction.
Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for the secretary-general, acknowledged that Ukraine and Russia produce an enormous number of products needed on the global food market. The impact of the deal's termination was immediate, with wheat prices increasing 3 percent when the news broke.
Guterres emphasized that the Black Sea Grain Initiative and Memorandum of Understanding on facilitating exports of Russian food products and fertilizers "have been a lifeline for global food security and a beacon of hope in a troubled world."
"Ultimately, participation in these agreements is a choice," Guterres said. "But struggling people everywhere and developing countries don't have a choice. Hundreds of millions of people face hunger, and consumers are confronting a global cost-of-living crisis. They will pay the price."
Dujarric said Guterres was disappointed his proposals in a letter to President Putin went "unheeded."
"The letter that [Gutteres] sent to President Putin was a very clear illustration of his determination to keep this alive for the benefit of people in the global south for the benefit of vulnerable people everywhere, for whom an increase in food prices has a direct impact - and it includes people in rich countries and in poor countries," Dujarric said.
According to Dujarric, Guterres did not receive a formal response to his letter.
The Joint Coordination Centre that facilitates the implementation of the initiative remains available for discussions in Istanbul. A final vessel is being inspected.
In a diplomatic flurry, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa last week discussed the initiative with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But according to reports, Russia said it could not continue with the initiative because promises, which include the export of fertilizer and, according to Reuters, connecting a subsidiary of Russia's agricultural bank to the international payment system SWIFT, which enables payments to be made, had not been fulfilled.
Ukraine is one of the world's largest exporters of grain. Before the Russian invasion in February 2022, Ukrain supplied around 45 million tonnes of grain to the world market annually. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 16 African countries rely strongly on the agricultural produce of Russia and Ukraine. The invasion triggered a shortage of at least 30 million tonnes of food globally, impacting countries like the Horn of Africa, where climate change, conflict, and bad governance have sparked a food security crisis affecting about 50 million people.
Wealthier Countries Main Beneficiary of Exports
However, data on the initiative indicates that China and Spain were the two biggest beneficiaries of the grain, although the World Food Programme (WFP) said the initiative was crucial to its support of humanitarian operations in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.
Of the 32.9 million tons exported, 43 percent went to developed countries and 57 to developing countries. Exports by World Bank categories show that 44 percent went to high-income countries. Upper-middle-income countries received 37 percent, lower-middle-income countries 17 percent, and low-income countries just 3 percent.
World Food Programme (WFP) Director David Beasley said: "Africa is very fragile right now. Fifty million people (are) knocking on famine's door." He warned that if Moscow should shut down or blockade the ports, there would be a catastrophe, notably in Africa, where millions of people are facing famine.
"Food prices, fuel costs, debt inflation, and three years of COVID, the people have no more coping capacity, and if we don't get in and get costs down, then 2024 could be the worst year we have seen in several hundred years".
Solutions to Africa's Foreign Dependence on Food Products
Steve Wiggins, a food expert at ODI, a global think-tank based in the UK, noted that Africa's dependence on imports was often misunderstood.
"African nations' dependence on foreign aid is very high; African nations are always depending on importation even as far back as before their independence and even after independence. But many African countries do not rely on imports for their staples, contrary to what many people assert. What Africa tends to import is higher-value food: frozen chicken, canned tuna, packed biscuits, packet noodles, and so on. If you look at imports of the main staples, for most countries, 15% or less, often far less, is imported."
He said rising imports did not indicate agricultural failure.
"This is a common misunderstanding: the idea that Africa is so far from feeding itself that rising food imports means agricultural failure. No, often rising food imports reflect economic growth and the ability of urban middle classes to afford imported food."
Chris Gilbert, a commodity market analyst, says, "The invasion of Ukraine pushed wheat prices up by just 5% - a very small share of the increase in wheat prices seen from April 2020 to May 2022. He points out that the Black Sea initiative has been a key reason why the invasion did not push wheat, maize, and sunflower prices higher and why prices fell back after May 2022".
Steve Wiggins, a food expert based in the UK, noted that "Africa's vulnerability to price rises varies hugely by place and circumstance. Some countries, such as Egypt and Sudan, are heavily exposed to rising costs of wheat imports. In other parts of Africa, hard-pressed working mothers have taken to sliced bread, noodles, and pasta as near-instant food they can prepare quickly for their children when they return from work."
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Alex Abutu, the Communication Officer for West and Central Africa at the African Agricultural Technology Foundation, said it was time for Africa to put resources into agriculture to lessen the dependence on imports of basic foodstuffs.
He said African governments are yet to fully follow the Maputo Declaration on Agriculture and Food Security resolutions, which include allocating 10 percent of national budgets to agricultural development - a trend experts say undermines the growth of African agricultural development.
"Africans should go beyond manual labor if they really and truly want to satisfy themselves. Precision agriculture should be encouraged and inculcated ... Seed buying should be encouraged; grains are meant to be eaten and not replanted; a good seed will surely germinate because it has undergone purification and has been checked well, unlike a grain that might have got infected, and this will affect the yields from it, a seed will surely bring about 99 percent yield but a grain will not. It reduces yields."
By Oluwafemi Olaniyan and Abigail Van Neely
Additional reporting: Cecilia Russell
IPS UN Bureau Report
