South Africa: Robust SA June Manufacturing, Mining Data Underscore Private Power Generation, Hold Promise for Q2 Growth

Relatively robust mining and manufacturing data for June suggest that South Africa's economy probably expanded again in the second quarter (Q2) though it's still not shooting the lights out. The data are also a reflection of fewer power cuts during the month, a state of affairs that partly underscores how the private sector has stepped up to the generation plate.

The June mining and manufacturing data released on Thursday show that the thaw in power cuts as winter set in helped to underpin industrial activity.

Mining production rose by 1.1% year on year in June after declining by 0.7% in May. On a monthly basis, output increased by 1.3%.

The spurt in manufacturing was even more impressive. Production in the sector increased by 5.5% year on year in June and 1.2% on a monthly basis.

And in the three months to the end of June on a seasonally adjusted basis compared with the previous three months, mining production rose by 1.5% and manufacturing output by 2.3%. This means that both sectors will make a positive contribution to the Q2 gross domestic product number and suggest that the economy probably grew again in the period after narrowly dodging a recession in Q1.

The rand bounced back a bit on news of the data -- both sets exceeded market expectations -- rising to 18.74/dollar by mid-afternoon on Thursday from 18.99/dollar early in the day. If the readings had been bleak, it would almost certainly have stumbled past 19/dollar.

A key factor in this industrial performance was the reduction in rolling blackouts during...

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