Accra, Ghana — Zimbabweans may carry high hopes to the polls when they go to elect a president on 23 August. They will definitely carry anxieties as well.

Their top concerns, according to a national Afrobarometer survey in April-May 2023, are unemployment and management of the economy. About two-thirds of respondents said the country is going in "the wrong direction" (65%) and described the country's economic situation and their personal living conditions as bad (69% and 62%). Only 27% thought things would be better in a year's time.

But they also have concerns about the election itself: Majorities said they fear violence during election campaigns (59%) and think that violence is "somewhat" or "very" likely after this election's results are announced (57%). Only half (51%) said they trust the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, and 49% said incorrect results are likely to be announced.

Even so, 85% said they were registered to vote, and most indicated they would "definitely" (70%) or "probably" (14%) cast their ballots.

Who will win? Excluding the 6% who said they would not vote, 37% indicated they would vote for incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa's ZANU-PF and 28% for main challenger Nelson Chamisa's Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC). But fully one in three (34%) refused to reveal how they will vote or said they "don't know." With so many Zimbabweans holding their cards close to their chests, we will have to wait until all votes are counted – accurately, one hopes – to see who prevails.

Survey background

Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues in African countries. In the Zimbabwe survey, a sample size of 2,400 yields country-level results with a margin of sampling error of +/-2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more information, please see www.afrobarometer.org.