A really bad week for platinum group metals and Chinese property has repercussions for SA's National Treasury.

What do South Africa's platinum group metal (PGM) sector, China's property market and the National Treasury have in common? Well, 14 August may well be remembered as "Black Monday" in South Africa's PGM sector, when companies saw their share prices tank by as much as 9%.

It was the same day that news emerged that China's largest private real estate developer, Country Garden, sought to delay payment on a private bond for the first time.

That has serious consequences for the Chinese and hence the global economy and the demand for commodities, including PGMs, at a time when the Asian Tiger is on the prowl for electric vehicles (EVs) that don't need platinum and its close relations.

The palladium price also tanked that day by more than 3%, extending its losses for the year to more than 30%.

What is the upshot for National Treasury and South Africa's economy more widely?

Well, according to Treasury data, as a volume of provisional corporate income taxes paid by three broad sectors -- finance, manufacturing and mining -- the latter's share soared from less than R10-billion in 2015/16 to over R80-billion in 2021/22, and was still around R80-billion in 2022/23, when it accounted...