Russia's presence in Africa heavily depends on the Wagner Group, headed by Yevgeny Prighozin. But now there is uncertainty about the private military company's role after a plane crash in Russia with Prighozin on board.
Russia's influence in Africa is very much present through the mercenary activities of the Wagner group in various countries, particularly in West and Central Africa. But following reports that Wagner's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, might be dead after a plane crashed in Russia -- many people in those countries now wonder if the military support from Russia in Africa could change.
The Russian aviation authority claims Wagner boss Prigozhin was on board, and all ten occupants are believed dead. But much is still unclear, including if he lost his life.
"While you can't say it's impossible. It can happen, of course. It can happen through drone strikes", a man in Burkina Faso reacted to the news. "But the head of the Wagner Group is killed in a plane crash? It's all unclear, " he added in a DW Interview.
Another Burkinabe expressed his disappointment: "He was really a person with convictions, with goals. If he was killed now, we have a lot to do because it will be tough for us to trust anyone in this world", he told DW.
In the Central African Republic, Christian Aime' Ndotah, a member of civil society, believes nothing much will change should Prigozhin be confirmed dead. "If his death is confirmed, it will not greatly impact the cooperation between Russia or Wagner and the CAR. Because Wagner has been very well established for several years", Ndotah told DW.
Business as usual in the Central African Republic
According to Ndotah, after the attempted rebellion by Prigozhin and his Wagner troops against Putin in June, one might have thought there would be a restructuring of the administration in the Central African capital and the Russian Embassy would take control.
In an exclusive interview with DW, Fidele Gouandjika, advisor to Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadera, said he, too, believes that nothing will change as far as bilateral relations are concerned.
"We have a defense agreement with Russia, and the paramilitarias who are with us will continue their work as before - they will find another chief."
"As for trade relations, we have a mining license, a brewery and a forestry license with the Russians, that will not change - even if Yevgeny Prigozhin is no longer there," he added.
Russia's shifting stand on Wagner's presence in Africa
Meanwhile, Moscow is still silent on the circumstances of the plane crash. Before the attempted coup against Russia's President Putin only a few weeks ago in June, the Kremlin praised Wagner's activities in Africa, saying the group was doing an excellent job in Mali and the Central African Republic and its operations would continue.
A closer look at the company's activities in Africa reveals the reason for such statements: Cooperation occurs where there are raw materials -- and Wagner controls the business.
For Vladimir Putin's government, there is no question that it must continue, Jean-Pierre Mara, a former lawmaker in the Central African Republic, said. "It needs the Central African gold, the Malian gold, to finance the war, so nothing will change," Pierre Mara told DW. "But whether it will be the same actors is unclear."
Win-win relationship for Russia and Wagner in Africa
Russian historian Irina Filatova described Russia's relationship with the Wagner Group in Africa as a win-win situation, with Wagner benefiting from Russia's prestige and Russian weapons.
"The relationship is very much like the pattern of European trading companies in the 19th century," Filatova told DW, drawing parallels to colonial times -- whether British, German or French. "They got a mandate from their respective state, acted independently, but the state benefited from their presence in Africa."
Mali's €100 million annual budget for Wagner
In late 2021, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank, identified a new military base in Mali. Eyewitnesses confirmed the base was built for Wagner troops.
At the time, a figure was already circulating: $10 million (€9 million). That's the amount Mali's military government was reportedly paying the mercenaries each month. That amounted to more than €100 million annually.
In the Central African Republic (CAR), where a comprehensive peace agreement was only reached in February 2019 under President Faustin Archange Touadera after decades of civil war, the Wagner Group's influence extend even further.
Wagner's growing influence in Africa
According to various observers, the group has a stake in many lucrative areas of the state, such as the oil sector or -- as in Mali -- the gold mining sector. A Canadian and a South African company lost their licenses, while a Madagascan company -- close to Russia -- received a new concession.
But there is also influence at the personnel level. Since 2018, Wagner mercenaries have protected President Touadera. His advisors have long included a man with closer ties to Wagner chief Prigozhin.
Paul Crescent Beninga, a Central African Republic civil society representative, said he was concerned by Wagner's growing influence. "The Central African Republic is not profiting from these developments," Beninga told DW. "Rather, the winners are the Russians."
He said that the Wagner Group's interference in CAR's internal political affairs worries him. "We have reached a point where this undermines the ability of the Central African state to conduct its politics without pressure."
Did Wagner take President Touadera hostage?
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Former minister Adrien Poussou, author of the book "Africa Doesn't Need Putin," is more blunt. "President Touadera is a hostage of Wagner, and he knows it," Poussou told DW. "So, despite the aborted rebellion of the Wagner group, the situation remains deadlocked until an even bigger power interferes in the dance."
However, the CAR government described the idea that it has lost control as "nonsense."
So, where do the Wagner operations in Africa go from here? All indications are that the business is too lucrative and essential for Moscow to abandon.
Historian Irina Filatova, who has researched Russia-Africa relations, pointed out that the Wagner enterprise includes a network of sub-companies. "They can be rebranded or remain under the same name as they are already a brand in Africa. They can act independently."
How each of these groups positions itself in the future depends entirely on the fate of Prigozhin: "That is totally unclear," Filatova said.
Bob Barry, Sandrine Blanchard, Jean-Michel Bos and Mahamadou Kane in Bamako contributed to this article
This article was adapted from German by Chrispin Mwakideu. The article was first published on June 30, 2023, and updated on August 24, 2023
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