Maputo — About 800,000 people could be affected by flooding in the approaching 2023-2024 rainy season, according to forecasts by the National Directorate of Water Resource Management (DNGRH).
Speaking in Maputo on Friday, at a Climate Forecasting National Forum. the head of the DNGRH water resource department, Agostinho Vilanculos, warned that floods could also affect some 280,000 hectares of farmland, including areas of high agricultural potential.
These forecasts, he added, do not include the possibility of cyclones and other extreme events.
There was a "moderate risk' of flooding in southern Mozambique, Vilanculos said, because the reservoir behind the Pequenos Libombos dam on the Umbeluzi river is at a very high level, and currently stores 350 million cubic metres of water. The reservoir will need very careful management in the coming months.
The level of the reservoirs in neighbouring South Africa and Eswatini is also very high. Vilanculos warned that rain falling in the upstream countries is likely to cascade into Mozambique.
The Umbeluzi and Incomati river basins are at risk of flooding in the first half of the rainy season (October to December), and the risk is likely to expand to all of southern Mozambique in the second half (January to March 2024).
The forecast for the centre and north of the country is for normal rainfall, with a trend to above normal, particularly in the second half of the rainy season. In those months, there would be a "moderate to high' risk of flooding, said Vilanculos.
The forecast could worsen, in the event of a cyclone, he added.
At the same Forum, the Deputy Minister of Transport, Amilton Alissone, spoke of the impact that the El Nino climate phenomenon (characterized by a warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean) could have on Mozambique.
El Nino is forecast to reduce rainfall in southern Mozambique, but increase it in the north.
Bernardino Nhantumbo, of the National Meteorology Institute (INAM), said there could be severe drought in much of the interior of Gaza province, which even in normal years is semi-arid. The districts likely to be worst affected are Chibuto, Guijá, Mapai, Mabalane and Massagena.
