Another 'perfect storm' has edged South Africa closer to Stage 7 power cuts. And the forecast doesn't look good for 52 weeks.

South Africa has been nudged toward Stage 7 load shedding, as Eskom's planning hit a second perfect storm this week.

Eskom's revised estimates of unplanned outages have increased astronomically week-on-week according to its latest system status report uploaded to its website.

The Cabinet's statement on Thursday that more intense load shedding will be short-lived is not borne out by the data.

The data contained in Eskom's latest system status report for Week 36, indicates that more than 2,000MW of capacity will be short for the next 52 weeks.

The planned risk scenario for the next 52 weeks, taken directly from the Week 36 Eskom system status report, looks vastly different from the previous Week 35 report. Essentially, three stages of load shedding have been added to Eskom's unplanned outage assumption in a week.

In its system status report for Week 35, the power utility had seemingly planned for breakdowns to average 13,000MW to 15,000MW over the following year. However, Eskom now assumes unplanned outages (breakdowns) are likely to average 16,000MW for the next 52 weeks.

Icy temperatures, multiple generator breakdowns and increased planned maintenance created another perfect storm at Eskom this week, which has seen South Africa...